Despite Risks, Jack Flaherty Best Available Starter to Improve Cubs Rotation
The Cubs’ rotation was excellent last year and now they have the chance to make it even better. A prolonged offensive slump in early summer would have led to even worse results were it not for the heroics of the starting pitchers. A lot of the success could be due to the rough weather Wrigley Field experienced throughout the season, making it one of the worst ballparks in baseball for hitters. There’s an argument to be made that the rotation can be even better, but do we trust that to be the case?
There are several question marks on the starting staff as currently constructed. Jordan Wicks was out most of 2024 and didn’t succeed when he was on the mound. Javier Assad is one of the most confusing pitchers of all time, barely escaping jams in seemingly every start by keeping frequent baserunners from scoring. Signing Matthew Boyd raises the ceiling, but he didn’t pitch much in 2024 either and has struggled with injuries throughout his career. Colin Rea seems to be penciled into a bullpen role, which still leaves one spot open if the Cubs want to make a meaningful improvement.
Options to do so have grown slim, with Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta standing as the best remaining targets. Pivetta declined a qualifying offer, so signing him would cost the Cubs $1 million in international free agent pool money plus their second and fifth draft picks in the 2025 MLB Draft. That narrows the focus to Flaherty, a former NL Central foe who put together a strong stretch run with the Dodgers.
Flaherty entered the winter as a big question mark, with health concerns making teams wary of offering a long-term contract. His 2021 and ’22 campaigns were cut short due to injury, but the last two seasons have seen him reach 144.1 and 162 innings, respectively. His 3.2 fWAR in 28 starts was the second-highest mark of his career (4.7 over 33 starts in ’19), and nearly all of his stats were at or near career-bests.
The California native has great command of the zone and misses bats as well, boasting a 32.1% whiff rate (91st percentile) with a 30.7% chase rate (72nd percentile). That might lead you to believe Flaherty walked a lot of batters as well, but his 5.9% walk rate (83rd percentile) was quite low. That would pair nicely with Shota Imanaga (4%, 97th percentile) and Jameson Taillon (4.9%, 93rd percentile). Jed Hoyer has built a strong defense to support his pitchers, so eliminating the free pass makes getting on base even harder when faced with Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, and Pete Crow-Armstrong up the middle.
Flaherty has never been a flamethrower, always relying more on movement than velocity. His four-seam fastball sits around 93 mph with a little more cut than average and his 85 mph slider is decent, but the 77 mph knuckle curve emerged as a real weapon last year. Opposing hitters had a .282 wOBA and .372 slugging against it in 2023 with the Cardinals and Orioles, but Flaherty cut those down to .219 and .175 with the Tigers and Dodgers in ’24. Being able to maintain that while making little improvements elsewhere would make him an excellent mid-rotation guy.
Jack Flaherty, Wicked 77mph Curveball. ? pic.twitter.com/WpIU8HBclW
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 4, 2024
During a recent episode of the North Side Territory Podcast, Sahadev Sharma called Flaherty’s current market “nonexistent.” No teams want to give him the longer deal he desires because they see too much risk in that kind of guarantee for a pitcher who missed 122 games due to a right shoulder injury. Reports have indicated that Flaherty is considering a short-term deal with a higher average annual value (AAV), which would be right of Hoyer’s alley.
A contract in the ballpark of two years at $50 million seems fair, and it’s something both sides should heavily consider. An opt-out can be added after the first year to allow Flaherty to capitalize on a big season, but the Cubs aren’t on the hook for several more seasons if the former Cardinal can’t maintain his stats from a rebound performance.
This current Cubs rotation is good, but not not good enough. Signing Flaherty adds both depth and upside and could open the door to trading either Assad or Wicks to address other needs. One or both could work out of the bullpen and provide spot starts over the course of the season as well. Having familiarity with the division is a nice little value-add, plus there’s one more little tie to the Cubs.
Flaherty and Crow-Armstrong both graduated from Harvard-Westlake High School in California, so maybe PCA could use his alumni connection to do a little recruiting.