Cubs Reportedly Sign LHP Matthew Boyd to 2-Year, $29M Deal

The Cubs made their first significant move of the offseason, with Jon Heyman reporting they’ve signed lefty Matthew Boyd to a two-year, $29 million contract that includes another $1 million in potential performance bonuses. This is somewhat of a curious move for a team that was expected to shop in the upper-middle class of the pitching market, though perhaps it’s indicative of other deals to come.

Boyd gets $29M for 2 years. $14.5M a year Plus $1M pbs (500K each year) #Cubs https://t.co/qy3QNP82pR

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 2, 2024

Boyd, who turns 34 in February, has never thrown more than 185.1 innings and has not reached 80 innings since 2019 despite working almost exclusively as a starter. Drafted by the Blue Jays in the sixth round in 2013, Boyd quickly worked his way through the system to make his MLB debut on June 26, 2015. Just over a month later, he was traded to Detroit as part of the return for David Price.

Over the next six seasons, Boyd bounced between Triple-A and the majors as he battled inconsistency and allowed way too much hard contact. Despite finishing the shortened 2020 season with the AL’s worst ERA (6.71), he was named the Tigers’ Opening Day starter the following season. That 2021 campaign would have been Boyd’s best, but he was hampered by triceps and forearm injuries and managed only 78.2 innings over 15 starts.

That led to a non-tender, after which he was picked up by the Giants. Boyd never pitched for San Francisco because he was still rehabbing from flexor tendon surgery, and he was traded to the Mariners along with Curt Casali at the deadline. He ended up with a 1.35 ERA over 10 relief appearances for Seattle, which was enough to earn him a $10 million deal to return to the Tigers. That second stint in Detroit was cut short by elbow reconstruction that kept him out half of 2023 and most of 2024 as well.

Boyd pitched this past season for the Guardians, putting up just 39.2 innings over eight starts. His results were very impressive, however, as he generated a 27.7% strikeout rate with just a 7.8% walk rate and 0.91 home runs per nine innings. The Cubs saw enough from his abbreviated season to guarantee him two years at what appears to be a fairly steep rate for a starter who’s totaled just under 203 innings over the last four seasons. It’s also a little odd to add a lefty to a rotation that already features at least two southpaws in Justin Steele and Shōta Imanaga, with Jordan Wicks presumably in line for a spot as well.

Unless, that is, the Cubs have another move or three up their sleeve. Along with Wicks, the roster is stocked with several other pitchers who profile as fringe starters or swingmen for one reason or another. Hayden Wesneski and Caleb Kilian have both flashed a great deal of talent but neither has been able to stay either healthy or consistent enough to escape expandability. One report on Twitter includes Javier Assad to those three as pitchers the Cubs are fielding calls about.

I can’t speak directly to the veracity of that report, though it only makes sense for these players to be on the block as the Cubs look to upgrade both the rotation and bullpen. But does signing Boyd really accomplish that end with any degree of certainty? I’d argue that it does not in and of itself, especially if it means parting with Wicks or Assad in particular. That means Jed Hoyer may be in the market to flip one or more arms and perhaps a bat for a cost-controlled starter to bolster the rotation and mitigate the risk from the Boyd deal.

Or maybe this is a situation in which Hoyer just has that much faith in Boyd and sees him as being able to maintain his late-season performance over what would be his first two healthy seasons in five years. For what it’s worth, MLB Trade Rumors had the southpaw ranked No. 23 on their top 50 free agent list, predicting a two-year deal for $25 million. So, hey, maybe we can at least take heart in the idea that Hoyer overpaid for someone.

Except that’s exactly the knock most armchair execs have leveled against the Cubs’ baseball boss over his tenure. There’s been zero desire to sign elite players, but give Hoyer an aging pitcher with a checkered injury history and he starts salivating like Pavlov rang a bell. Whether that’s entirely fair or not, it’s going to be a common response to this move.

My guess is that we’ll see pretty heavy activity from the Cubs here in the next two weeks, at which point we may be better able to judge this as part of a series of deals. That’s why I’m avoiding any real criticism or praise for the time being. Boyd may prove to be a tremendous bargain or a big flop, the important thing is how the Cubs perform as a team over the next two years and beyond.