The Rundown: Hoyer Still Seeking Philosopher’s Stone, Imanaga and Busch Named to All-Rookie Team, Postseason Ratings Way Up
“…And it’s a hard road… It’s a hard road Daddy-o when my job is turning lead into gold.” – Van Morrison, Philosopher’s Stone
The term “lovable losers” is something I never understood. The media pushed that caricature of Chicago’s North Side baseballers until 2016, but the Cubs proved they could win consistently when Lou Piniella and Dusty Baker managed, and then again with Joe Maddon. There is nothing lovable about losing or consistently playing in the neighborhood of .500 baseball.
Thankfully, that paradigm shifted permanently when Chicago won it all nearly a decade ago. The expectations are higher, at least for fans, but the urgency to be better disappeared in 2021 and has yet to return. Jed Hoyer’s front office is so steeped in analytics that it often feels soulless. It’s missing fire and perhaps a little magic, but the group lacks vision nonetheless.
If position didn’t matter, you could substitute one Cubs player for any other, though Shōta Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and Pete Crow-Armstrong are the exceptions. Hoyer needs to find another heart-on-his-sleeve player or two for his everyday lineup. Players like Anthony Rizzo, Javier Báez, and Willson Contreras left a legacy that’s lacking today. Metrics-based executives call those non-quantifiable attributes intangibles, and though they won’t add any wins to Chcago’s balance sheet, they at least make it look like the team cares when it loses.
At times, the Cubs feel more like a team built in a laboratory than one constructed by a savvy baseball executive. Everything seems too carefully measured and overly calculated under the guise of intelligent spending when filling roster holes. The six-part process is about as eye-opening as a Leo Tolstoy novel.
- Select the values that need to be subtracted.
- Identify potential incoming units that have similar financial values and positional attributes.
- Calculate the sum value as close to the median as possible.
- Notate any differences in those values to reveal potential gaps.
- Mitigate risk with potential value adds at subprime prices.
- Outperform projections.
The final two steps defy the logic of their predecessors, which is why Hoyer remains a pseudoscientific charlatan among a peer group that has embraced particle acceleration and nuclear transmutation. It’s disappointing to many fans that he seems unwilling to tweak his M.O., and replacing intellectual firepower with experimental acumen keeps the mythical philosopher’s stone out of Hoyer’s reach. In layman’s terms, attempting to turn lead into gold is pure folly, runs counter to the principles of intelligent spending, and rarely wins championships.
Cubs News & Notes
- Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson are Chicago’s Gold Glove finalists. It’s fair to say that Crow-Armstrong and Nico Hoerner were snubbed.
- Imanaga and Michael Busch were named to the 2024 MLB Pipeline All-Rookie Team.
- The Cubs confirmed that third base coach Willie Harris will not return next season.
- Minor leaguers Moises Ballesteros, Jack Neely, and Jonathon Long have forced their way onto Chicago’s 2025 radar.
- Ballesteros is destroying baseballs in the Arizona Fall League.
- The big-bodied catching prospect is turning his work behind the dish into even better at-bats.
- It won’t happen, but it would be tough to find a better win-win trade than Hoerner for Devin Williams and a prospect.
Odds & Sods
Cleon Jones caught that fly ball and tens of thousands of Cubs fans simultaneously shot double birds at their television sets.
On October 16, 1969 at 3:14 p.m. Cleon Jones caught the final out of Game 5 and the New York @Mets were World Series Champions! pic.twitter.com/d5uaL7MlWs
— MetsRewind (@metsrewind) October 16, 2024
Ball Four
Are the Cubs better off trading Hoerner and replacing him with Matt Shaw? I understand the excitement in promoting highly touted prospects, but it’s also unfair to ask Shaw to generate 4.3 wins as a rookie, which is what Hoerner has averaged across three seasons. That’s the type of move you make when you’re rebuilding as several examples indicate. I’ll give you four, and you tell me which club benefitted more.
- The Red Sox traded Mookie Betts (with David Price) to the Dodgers for Jeter Downs, Alex Verdugo, and Connor Wong.
- The Cubs traded Yu Darvish and Victor Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies, Owen Caissie, Ismael Mena, Reginald Preciado, and Yeison Santana.
- The Cardinals acquired Nolan Arenado from the Rockies for Mateo Gil, Tony Locey, Jake Sommers, Austin Gomber, and Elehuris Montero.
- The Marlins traded Giancarlo Stanton to the Yankees for Starlin Castro, José Devers, and Jorge Guzmán.
Juan Soto has been traded for a gaggle of prospects twice, but I did not include him because there is no fair value return for a player who is that good and still so young.
Shaw needs to play but it shouldn’t be at the cost of trading Hoerner. The Cubs would be better off trading Isaac Paredes instead. Though the return for Parades will be much smaller, the overall production won’t be as difficult to replace. Hoerner is also a better defender than Paredes, and if the Cubs could turn Nick Madrigal into a defensive asset at the hot corner, they can do the same with Shaw.
Central Intelligence
- Milwaukee: The Brewers aren’t likely to look outside the organization to replace free-agent shortstop Willy Adames. One of Joey Ortiz or Brice Turang will change positions.
- St. Louis: Reliever Keynan Middleton missed the entire 2024 season after signing with the Cardinals, and now St. Louis will likely decline its $6 million option to retain his services.
- Cincinnati: The Reds have not had a Gold Glove finalist since Tucker Barnhart won the award in 2020.
- Pittsburgh: The Pirates could target Andrew Vaughn to fill a hole at first base if he is made available by the White Sox.
How About That!
The Yankees took a commanding 2-0 ALCS lead over the Guardians thanks to Aaron Judge.
Shohei Ohtani is nearly unstoppable with runners in scoring position, so Derek Jeter says the Dodgers should use any means possible to put runners on ahead of him.
Shifting Francisco Lindor to leadoff probably saved the Mets’ season.
Now that the Padres and Brewers have been eliminated, there are still five MLB franchises that have yet to win a World Series.
Whether you like them or not, Rob Manfred’s rules changes have changed baseball’s overall fan experience for the better.
Postseason ratings are 18% higher this year than last.
Like Bronson Arroyo and Bernie Williams, shortstop Jose Iglesias has transitioned to a career in music following his retirement from baseball. He’s got the name, so that’s a good start.
Extra Innings
How about signing Rōki Sasaki first?
Someday is now. See you in Tokyo. pic.twitter.com/TOkyqOG5T4
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) July 18, 2024
They Said It
- “There is no way to sugarcoat it – this is not where we planned to finish the season. Like our fans, we had high expectations for our team this year, and early victories delivered hope for postseason baseball.” – Tom Ricketts
- “I plan to continue coaching. I’ve had a few calls already, but it’s still going to take some time – and let everything just marinate. I do want to say, I’m very grateful for the North Side of Chicago. The fans were good to me, the players, and even the front office. It’s time for me to move on.” – Harris
Wednesday Walk-Up Song
Listening to Van Morrison always redirects my musical palette to Count Five. Perhaps it is because they remind me of Them.