AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill

The Rundown: Cubs Bullpen Needs Stability, Hoyer Sitting on $70 Million, MLB Sets Qualifying Offer, Yanks Eliminate Royals

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterOctober 11, 2024

“I watch the ripples change their size but never leave the stream of warm impermanence.” – David Bowie, Changes

Jed Hoyer said he needs to reassess how he builds his bullpens, but I’d argue he has a strong group ready to go in 2025. I’ve been at Cubs Insider for a while now, and all of us here have probably previously said that on more than one occasion, but this year feels different despite the disappointing finish and failure to reach the playoffs. I’m also convinced that the pitchers Chicago retains will be even better next year. Reinforcements are needed, but the foundation for a dominant bullpen is in place. You can’t deny that Hoyer deserves credit for that. At the same time, his bullpens have always been an ongoing work in progress that often lacks reliability.

The Cubs’ list of closers going back to 2011 reads like the Bears’ list of starting quarterbacks since 2000. I’m starting with that year because that season ended Jim Hendry’s tenure as Chicago’s GM. Theo Epstein and Hoyer took over the following season, and one philosophy shared by the two executives was to spend sparingly on the bullpen. That’s failed a lot more than it’s worked, though I’d be wrong if I didn’t note that they’ve also failed when making big moves to acquire a closer. Other than Aroldis Chapman, of course.

Here is a list of players that have closed for the North Siders since Hendry was fired on July 22, 2011. I am only including hierarchy changes, so, Blake Parker, for example, isn’t included. Parker was 1-of-1 in save opportunities back in 2013.

Hodge should begin the 2025 season as the incumbent unless he is injured or blows up in Arizona. Neris is gone and Alzolay is a non-tender candidate. Re-signing López, who had four saves and eight holds after joining the Cubs as a midseason free agent, would go a long way toward strengthening next year’s bullpen. Tyson Miller, another midseason acquisition, led Chicago with 14 holds. Merryweather, who was injured for most of this season, should be back.

Hodge is the key, however, because Counsell prefers back-end stability among his relief corps. Since 1920, Hodge was one of four rookie relievers to post a WHIP under 1.00, an ERA under 2.00, hold opponents to a batting average below .150, and average more than 10 K/9 in at least 40 innings. Alexis Díaz (2022), Dellin Betances (2014),  and Troy Percival (1995) are the others.

Keegan Thompson could play an integral role as a reliever next year, and Hoyer will seek all value plays available in trade or free agency. Mason Miller, Devin Williams, and Tanner Scott will be the primary targets of most teams, but Tommy Kahnle and former starter Jeff Hoffman are intriguing but less pricey options.

Cubs News & Notes

  • The Cubs should be at least $70 million under the CBT threshold when they start their offseason shopping.
  • In his annual letter to Cub fans, Tom Ricketts said the organization intends to close the gap on this year’s postseason qualifiers and build a team that delivers on its promise of sustained success. Ricketts also said that 2024 was “maybe the toughest season of his tenure.”
  • There are a few articles on the internet this morning indicating Cody Bellinger may decide to opt out because this year’s group of available centerfielders is weak. Link at your behest. Harrison Bader and Michael A. Taylor are the best available so the prevailing notion is that Bellinger has an opportunity to leverage the market in his favor. I don’t buy that. First, he’ll be sidelined until Juan Soto signs, and Corbin Burnes and/or Pete Alonso could affect Belli’s market, too. Teams might also be interested in trading for Luis Robert Jr., too. A weak market also gives an advantage to the front offices, who will stall to wait for Bellinger’s price to drop. I could be wrong, but I disagree with my peers and still fully expect Bellinger to stay. Will Hoyer trade him if he sticks around? That’s a story for another day.

Odds & Sods

The Guardians will become THE story of the postseason if they can eliminate the Tigers in Saturday’s winner-take-all tilt in Cleveland. The Guardians broke a streak of 11 straight losses in elimination games by beating Detroit on Thursday.

Ball Four

Patrick Wisdom is Chicago’s lone current source of legitimate power, but he’s also a non-tender candidate. He’s projected to earn $3 million in arbitration and though that’s not a lot, his spot on the roster is probably worth more. He shouldn’t have difficulty finding a new team and looks like a good fit at first base for the Giants. P-Widdy is batting .321 with five homers, 10 RBI, and a 1.335 OPS in 10 career games at Oracle Field. His average of one home run every 5.6 at bats would make Babe Ruth, Henry Aaron, and Barry Bonds jealous. Yes, that’s a small sample size.

Wisdom has fared well against the Rockies, slashing .304/.396/.961 in 54 plate appearances. However, he’s hitting below .200 against the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Padres.

The Cardinals might be interested in Wisdom since they’re moving on from Paul Goldschmidt, while the Brewers could kick the tires on the veteran corner infielder if Rhys Hoskins opts out.

Central Intelligence

How About That!

Guardians UT David Fry is the first improbable hero of the 2024 postseason. The second-year role player launched a two-run, pinch-hit homer off Tigers reliever Beau Brieske that gave the Guardians the lead. Then in the ninth, he laid down the decisive safety squeeze that handed Cleveland a 5-4 victory over the Tigers.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto will face Yu Darvish in tonight’s win-or-walk contest between the Dodgers and Padres at Dodger Stadium.

The Yankees beat the Royals 3-1 to advance to the ALCS, though the game was not without a few extracurriculars.

Royals reliever Will Smith had his four-year streak of winning championships snapped when Kansas City was eliminated.

2015 postseason hero Daniel Murphy believes the Mets will win it all this season. Raise your hand if you’re hoping for another Subway Series. I kept mine by my side.

Jeff McNeil will play in the Arizona Fall League this weekend before the Mets activate him for the NLCS.

Kansas City’s core of young players exited the playoffs hungry for more postseason action.

The Twins, estimated to be worth more than 1.5 billion dollars, are being put up for sale by the Pohlad family.

The damage inflicted on Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay by Hurricane Milton may take weeks to assess.

Friday Stove

On Thursday, ESPN reported that Major League Baseball’s qualifying offer for impending free agents has increased to $21.05 million, a slight rise from the $20.325 million mark it was at last year.

Nick Gordon, Dylan Covey, and Rafael Ortega are among a handful of players who elected free agency on Thursday. Frank Schwindel, anyone?

The Blue Jays need to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette if they want to remain competitive in the very strong AL East.

There are fates worse than death, but few if any owners are worse than Arte Moreno. The Angels’ czar said he’s as frustrated as everyone else but believes his ballclub is heading in the right direction. The White Sox (121) were the only American League team with more losses than Anaheim (99). Moreno is just realizing he needs to field a competitive team. Yes, that yawn you just heard was from Mike Trout.

Unassisted Triple Play

This article has one of the best headlines you’ll ever read, plus the content is timely and relevant.

Just Gonna Leave This Here

Is Bob Costas aware that he tends to ramble on about nothing burgers like he’s pursuing a political office?

Extra innings

Do you know what the Cubs haven’t had since 2017? The swagger and confidence that they can’t lose. Jameson Taillon said as much at the end of the season. Owen Caissie is going to help resurrect that feeling once he arrives.

Bear Essentials

  • The Bears have a 3-2 record, a rising star at quarterback in Caleb Williams, and one of the NFL’s best defenses, yet they’re still in last place in the NFC North. That’s because the infamous black and blue division is now the league’s best with a 14-5 record through five weeks.
  • We made some changes to the site yesterday, so you’ll be happy to know that linking to the Bears Insider home page finally directs you to its most recent content.

They Said It

  • “The one thing we always talk about with young guys is like, you’ve had success. It’s been a great year. We’ve learned a lot. Don’t ever take anything for granted in this game. … Most guys won’t have 10 years [in the big leagues], so take advantage of it. This is your job. This is your life. And Porter [Hodge] does an amazing job of that.” – Tommy Hottovy

Friday Walk-Up Song

I hope you all enjoy your weekend. May it be filled with bonfires, warm cider, and someone to hug.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterOctober 11, 2024
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