Cubs Reportedly Being Primed to Pursue Top-Line Pitching Scares Me on 3 Levels
With the Cubs eliminated from the postseason, the rest of us can join Jed Hoyer in putting the focus on how the Cubs become competitive in 2025. Whether that means real improvement or simply rolling out another roster good enough to sell fans on the plausibility of hope remains to be seen. Heck, we don’t even know if it’ll be Hoyer pulling the strings. Since he’s still got a year left on his contract and has seemingly operated the team in a manner pleasing to ownership, I’ll assume he gets another shot at it.
The biggest obstacle facing the front office this winter is that the Cubs lack a superstar and the willingness to do what it takes to bring one in. Or at least they’ve not shown such a desire to this point. We’ll get to that in a bit, as it’s one of those scary things I want to dive into. First, we need to discuss the idea that top-line starting pitching appears to be their primary target.
Reports of the Cubs’ interest in pending free agent Corbin Burnes started to pop up at least ago, and it’s easy to see why just due to his ties to Craig Counsell. I remain as concerned about his aging curve as when I wrote the linked piece, particularly when considering he’d likely be the organization’s first $200 million man, but that’s not what really scares me. Again, we’ll get into more of that shortly.
Patrick Mooney has made it quite clear that pitching is a priority for the Cubs, though the description provided below doesn’t indicate a run at an ace.
The Cubs are planning to add an established starting pitcher to a group that includes Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad. There’s ample room for a free agent who would be expected to make 30 starts and could be trusted in a playoff game. It’s a clear way to improve one of the team’s strengths while also creating options for the bullpen and more depth at Triple-A Iowa. Names like Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski and Cade Horton should factor into next year’s plans, but more as reserves or in supporting roles.
While he’s certainly not ruling out the pursuit of a No. 1 guy, this sounds more like they’d be looking for a mid-rotation type who provides a little insurance against regression for Jameson Taillon. One name that’s popped up recently in that regard is Max Fried, and we’ve also made note here of Nathan Eovaldi‘s potential fit. That duo has just four 30-start seasons combined, two for each, but the injury risk and other issues play into Hoyer’s strong desire to find value in his signings.
That’s the first scary aspect for me. The front office’s obsession with getting good deals may be preventing the Cubs from doing the best deals for the team on the field. They’re so busy threading the needle that they let other teams sew up players who probably would have been better fits. A similar strategy this winter could lead to yet another season in which the margin for error is simply too narrow.
My next two concerns stem from the idea that pitching is the priority when it comes to offseason additions. Even if Cody Bellinger decides to opt out of the final two years of his deal, every other member of the everyday lineup is locked in for at least one more year. Given how many of their top prospects finished the season at Triple-A, one open spot isn’t going to be nearly enough.
With full understanding that you can’t bank on two or three prospects coming up taking over regular roles, you still need to have the ability to turn over the reins should those young players earn a shot. That was the case for the Cubs in 2015, and Hoyer has been steadfast in saying improvement has to be internal. The only problem is that could lead to them eschewing the earnest pursuit of a middle-of-the-order bat in favor of waiting on one or more of those prospects to force their way up during the season.
That’s really two concerns at once, huh?
Finally, we arrive at my third problem: Horton’s health. Sahadev Sharma recently reported that Horton is expected to be ready for spring training, but I can’t shake the fear that his shoulder issue is worse than what the club has shared. Initially called a right lat strain and then further specified as a subscapular strain, the injury shut Horton down in late May after just nine starts between Double- and Triple-A. For those who aren’t well versed in anatomy, the subscapularis is the largest and strongest of the four muscles that make up the rotator cuff.
I’m not saying the team is hiding anything and I’m certainly not suggesting Horton may have been misdiagnosed, but it wouldn’t be the first time a prospect has provided this diagnosis only to have it be something worse. The Cubs’ aggressiveness in the pitching market may be a gauge of their confidence, or lack thereof, in Horton’s ability to bounce back next season.
On the other hand, they may simply be looking to build in as much high-end pitching depth as possible knowing they won’t be going big on the offensive side. That’s where all my concerns reach a point of confluence, though it requires the assumption that adding a big bat isn’t in the picture for next year. And hey, maybe they’ll add a big arm and a bigger bat while also swinging a trade or three to clear some room for prospects. Guess we’ll just have to wait and see.