Cubs Viewed as Fit for Several Top Free Agents, Contract Predictions Vary Wildly
Let’s establish right out of the gate that some of the free agency predictions you’ll see out there are simply meant to titillate and create controversy. Some might simply have been put together by someone who doesn’t know what the hell they’re talking about. Others may be both, so I’ll let you decide whether that’s the case with the numbers you’ll see below.
In putting this list together, I actually looked at rankings from MLB Trade Rumors, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, and Jim “Ralph” Bowden of The Athletic. Each of those separate rolls has at least 25 names, but I’m going to limit this piece to free agents that have at least passing connection to the Cubs. If nothing else, it’s funny to see just how much variation these predictions display.
Carlos Correa
Viewed by most as the top overall player on the market, Correa turned down a lowball offer from the Astros of $160 million over five years. He has said he’s looking for a deal around 10 years and it seems like $30-32 million AAV is the rate.
McDaniel
Rank: 1
Contract: 9 years, $297 million
Teams mentioned: Yankees
Davidoff
Rank: 1
Contract: 10 years, $350 million
Predicted landing spot: Tigers
Bowden
Rank: 2
Contract: 10 years, $300 million
Best fits: Astros, Yankees, Cardinals, Rangers, Tigers, Mariners, Red Sox
MLBTR
Rank: 1
Contract: 10 years, $320 million
Predicted landing spots: Tigers, Phillies
Average: 9.75 years, $316.75 million ($32.5M AAV)
Most likely team: Tigers
Corey Seager
The best pure hitter of the class, Seager may end up moving off the position well before this contract is done. He handles high velocity as well as anyone and has experience in huge games, so teams view him as a solid leader. Questionable health history and the likely inability to remain at short could ding his value.
McDaniel
Rank: 2
Contract: 7 years, $210 million
Teams mentioned: None
Davidoff
Rank: 2
Contract: 10 years, $305 million
Predicted landing spot: Rangers
Bowden
Rank: 1
Contract: 10 years, $320 million
Best fits: Astros, Dodgers, Yankees, Cardinals, Rangers, Tigers, Mariners, Red Sox (Yes, it’s the same list as Correa with the Astros added)
MLBTR
Rank: 2
Contract: 10 years, $305 million
Predicted landing spot: Yankees
Average: 9.25 years, $285 million ($30.8M AAV)
Most likely teams: Yankees, Rangers
Kris Bryant
You’re probably familiar with this guy, so we’ll keep it short. His versatility is going to be a big selling point and the security of a new deal might have him playing better than we’ve seen in a while. If the low end of these predictions is accurate, the Cubs could even be interested. The Mariners are also seen as a favorite landing spot.
McDaniel
Rank: 8
Contract: 5 years, $90 million
Teams mentioned: None
Davidoff
Rank: 11
Contract: 6 years, $140 million
Predicted landing spot: Mariners
Bowden
Rank: 7
Contract: 6 years, $150 million
Best fits: Giants, White Sox, Mariners, Rangers, Rockies, Guardians, Nationals
MLBTR
Rank: 4
Contract: 6 years, $160 million
Predicted landing spot(s): Mariners, Mets
Average: 5.75 years, $135 million ($23.5M AAV)
Most likely team: Mariners
Robbie Ray
He’s a Cy Young frontrunner and he got a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, the combination of which has a lot of folks thinking he’ll stay in Toronto.
McDaniel
Rank: 9
Contract: 4 years, $76 million
Teams mentioned: None
Davidoff
Rank: 6
Contract: 5 years, $125 million
Predicted landing spot: Blue Jays
Bowden
Rank: 8
Contract: 5 years, $120 million
Best fits: Blue Jays, Giants, Angels, Cardinals, Cubs
MLBTR
Rank: 7
Contract: 5 years, $130 million
Predicted landing spot: Blue Jays
Average: 4.75 years, $112.75 million ($23.75M AAV)
Most likely team: Blue Jays
Kevin Gausman
One of two tremendous examples of how the QO can work out well for player and team alike, Gausman broke out with the Giants and is now in line for a big payday as a presumed ace or No. 2 starter.
McDaniel
Rank: 6
Contract: 5 years, $105 million
Teams mentioned: None
Davidoff
Rank: 8
Contract: 5 years, $110 million
Predicted landing spot: Giants
Bowden
Rank: 9
Contract: 5 years, $118 million
Best fits: Blue Jays, Giants, Angels, Cardinals, Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs
MLBTR
Rank: 5
Contract: 6 years, $138 million
Predicted landing spot: Giants
Average: 5.25 years, $117.75 million ($22.4M AAV)
Most likely team: Giants
Marcus Stroman
Along with Gausman, Stro positioned himself very well for a long-term deal after opting out of the 2020 season and accepting the Mets’ QO for this past season. One of these predictions is much lower than the others and would represent exactly the kind of value Jed Hoyer is seeking.
McDaniel
Rank: 18
Contract: 3 years, $48 million
Teams mentioned: None
Davidoff
Rank: 13
Contract: 5 years, $100 million
Predicted landing spot: Astros
Bowden
Rank: 11
Contract: 5 years, $110 million
Best fits: Mets, Giants, Angels, Cardinals, Cubs
MLBTR
Rank: 11
Contract: 5 years, $110 million
Predicted landing spot: Angels, Twins, Dodgers
Average: 4.25 years, $92 million ($21.6M AAV)
Most likely team: Varied
Javier Báez
Hey, you’ve heard of this guy before. Everyone seems to view Javy’s value differently and his market probably depends on what happens with the other shortstops ahead of him. His best-case scenario might be to have other teams lose out on the bidding for Correa and/or Seager and then come to him with big money in hand.
McDaniel
Rank: 11
Contract: 1 year, $25 million
Teams mentioned: None
Davidoff
Rank: 9
Contract: 7 years, $150 million
Predicted landing spot: Mets
Bowden
Rank: 10
Contract: 6 years, $172 million
Best fits: Mets, Cubs, Yankees, Rangers, Tigers, Mariners, Astros
MLBTR
Rank: 12
Contract: 5 years, $100 million
Predicted landing spot(s): Rangers, Tigers
Average: 4.75 years, $111.75 million ($23.5M AAV)
Most likely team: Varied
Nick Castellanos
After a disappointing debut season in Cincinnati, Castellanos exercised his option to return and ended having a tremendous season. He then opted out of the remaining two guaranteed years and $32 million, but he’s now saddled with a QO. Even though it sounded like he’d love to return to Chicago, the penalties for signing him might be too steep.
McDaniel
Rank: 13
Contract: 3 years, $54 million
Teams mentioned: None
Davidoff
Rank: 16
Contract: 5 years, $85 million
Predicted landing spot: Guardians
Bowden
Rank: 13
Contract: 5 years, $126 million
Best fits: Rockies, Rangers, Mets, Nats, Padres, Guardians, White Sox
MLBTR
Rank: 10
Contract: 5 years, $115 million
Predicted landing spot(s): Rangers, Padres
Average: 4.25 years, $95.25 million ($22.4M AAV)
Most likely team: Varied
Seiya Suzuki
Younger than most posted Japanese players, the 27-year-old outfielder possesses both pop and patience to go with speed and a strong arm. The team that signs him will owe a posting fee tied to the value of his deal, but it’s a much smaller cost than in the old days.
McDaniel
Rank: 17
Contract: 4 years, $48 million
Teams mentioned: None
Davidoff
Rank: 36
Contract: 3 years, $21 million
Predicted landing spot: Marlins
Bowden
Rank: 14
Contract: 5 years, $101 million
Predicted landing spot(s): Rangers, Padres, Mets, Phillies, Nats, Giants
MLBTR
Rank: 20
Contract: 5 years, $55 million
Predicted landing spot(s): Phillies, Rangers
Average: 4.25 years, $56.25 million ($13.25M AAV)
Most likely team: Varied
Kyle Schwarber
Being non-tendered woke him up a little and he was the hottest hitter on the planet for about a month in DC before a hamstring injury derailed him. He continued to rake following a trade to Boston and hit some mammoth dingers in the postseason.
McDaniel
Rank: 21
Contract: 3 years, $45 million
Teams mentioned: None
Davidoff
Rank: 9
Contract: 5 years, $80 million
Predicted landing spot: Red Sox
Bowden
Rank: 24
Contract: 3 years, $54 million
Best fits: All teams looking for DH
MLBTR
Rank: 15
Contract: 4 years, $70 million
Predicted landing spot(s): Rockies, Blue Jays, Nats
Average: 3.75 years, $62.25 million ($16.6M AAV)
Most likely team: Varied
Anthony Rizzo
After initially seeking a deal in the nine-figure range, Rizzo turned down overtures from the Cubs that reportedly came in around $70 million. His performance flagged and he probably looking at more of a prove-it deal this time around.
McDaniel
Rank: 31
Contract: 2 years, $22 million
Teams mentioned: None
Davidoff
Rank: 27
Contract: 2 years, $32 million
Predicted landing spot: Yankees
Bowden
Rank: 20
Contract: 4 years, $80 million
Best fits: Yankees, Red Sox
MLBTR
Rank: 21
Contract: 3 years, $45 million
Predicted landing spot(s): Marlins, Red Sox, Braves
Average: 2.75 years, $44.75 million ($16.25M AAV)
Most likely teams: Yankees, Red Sox
Yusei Kikuchi
A down year due in large part to the absence of really strong secondaries may have diminished Kikuchi’s market, but he still has mid-90’s gas and will be viewed as a reclamation project. Fix his slider and he could really take off.
McDaniel
Rank: 33
Contract: 2 year, $21 million
Teams mentioned: None
Davidoff
Rank: N/A
Contract: N/A
Predicted landing spot: N/A
Bowden
Rank: N/A
Contract: N/A
Best fits: N/A
MLBTR
Rank: 34
Contract: 2 years, $20 million
Predicted landing spot: Cubs
Average: 2 years, $20.5 million ($10.25M AAV)
Most likely team: Cubs
There are obviously many other free agents with ties to Cubs, either as former players or objects of conjecture, so you might want to peruse those full lists if you find yourself with a little extra time. As imperfect as they may be individually, I find it enlightening to cross-reference them and get the averages. Which other players should the Cubs be in the market for and do you believe they’ll actually get splashy with a big signing or two?