Cubs Quick Hits: Kris Bryant Should Have More Homers

Kris Bryant’s total run production this year nearly mirrors that of his MVP season. The difference between the two campaigns, though, is the way Bryant has created runs. This season, Bryant’s homer per fly ball rate is 15 percent lower than the one that led him to 39 homers. Just to match last year, Bryant would have to hit 14 longballs here in September.

But is the Cubs MVP’s 25 home runs this season an accurate reflection of his offensive prowess? No.

Bryant’s expected home run total is actually 29, according to the xStats model that incorporates exit velocity, launch angle, horizontal and vertical batted-ball location, ballpark, temperature, and so on. While the third baseman’s home run total makes it look as though he hasn’t hit for much power, he actually has. Having those four extra home runs to his name would put the star on pace to nearly match the 39 tally last year.

So rest assured, Bryant still has been mashing balls even though the surface numbers don’t show it.

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