The Chicago Cubs are 97-55 after 152 games and I have to be honest, I’m a little anxious. At the start of this season I predicted that the Cubs would win 105 games – if you haven’t read the post, please do, you’ll love it. In order to do that they’d need to go 8-2 in their last ten games. I’m not going to tip-toe around it either, of course I want my prediction to be right. I mean, who wouldn’t?
It would be incredible if the Cubs can get to 100 wins. Not many teams do that. According to Wikipedia, over the course of 124 seasons beginning in 1892, 98 teams have won 100 games or more. Of those 98 teams, 62 teams made it to the World Series and 34 won the World Series. So, 63% of all 100-win teams have made the World Series. Out of all 62 teams that made the Series, roughly 55% of them went on to win it all. I love those odds. But, there’s more.
Of the teams that broke the 100-win mark, only 24 of them have won 105 games or more and 21 of those teams went on to play in the World Series. Out of the 21 teams with over 105 wins that played in the World Series, 14 of them went on to win the World Series. That means that a whooping 88% of all teams that have won more than 105 games in a single season have gone to the World Series and 67% of those teams have won the World Series.
Ok, I admit that was a lot of numbers. I will try to simplify my point.
If the Cubs win 100 games, the chances of them winning the World Series is 34.65%.
If the Cubs win 105 games, the chances of them winning the World Series is 58.96%.
Since all of this is based on historical performances and not some dude making up numbers in Vegas, I tend to feel a lot better about sharing them with you. Of course, in the end, it’s all up to the individual team. The reality is that if the Cubs can win 105 games this year, their odds of winning the World Series increase dramatically – more than 24% – and that is a wonderful thing.
In case you were wondering, there have been five teams in the history of the Chicago Cubs that have won at least 100 games.
1906 – 116 wins, lost World Series to Chicago White Sox 4-2
1907 – 107 wins, won World Series over Detroit Tigers 4-0
1909 – 104 wins, finished second in National League 6 1/2 games behind Pirates
1910 – 104 wins, lost World Series to Philadelphia Athletics 4-1
1935 – 100 wins, lost World Series to Detroit Tigers 4-2