Jon Lester’s Incredibly Consistent Splits Could be Recipe for Domination
The calendar is slowly but surely chugging along and we are right around ten weeks away from Jon Lester toeing the rubber for the first time as a Cub vs. the Cardinals. Lester’s signing, along with the acquisitions of Miguel Montero and Dexter Fowler, has led to a fair amount of optimism (not least of all by me).
I decided to take a deeper look at Lester’s splits and see what kinds of interesting things could be gleaned from those numbers. I chose to look at his career splits as opposed to just last year so that I could get a larger sample size. BaseballReference.com was my source for these stats.
RHB vs. LHB
|
ABs |
AVG |
OPS |
K/BB |
|
| vs. RHB |
4492 |
.250 |
.698 |
2.46 |
| vs. LHB |
1518 |
.243 |
.680 |
3.50 |
Lester is a little tougher on lefty batters than righties, holding the former group to a lower average while posting a significantly better K/BB ratio. What’s really nice to see is that it isn’t terribly skewed and he still has done pretty well against RHB. He has given up one HR every 42 ABs against RHB; against LHB he has given up a HR for every 37 ABs.
Month-by-Month Comparison
|
WIN % |
ERA |
K/9 |
|
|
March/April |
.500 |
3.86 |
8.1 |
|
May |
.656 |
4.05 |
8.6 |
|
June |
.742 |
3.18 |
8.1 |
|
July |
.583 |
3.41 |
8.6 |
|
August |
.600 |
3.78 |
7.5 |
|
Sept/Oct |
.686 |
3.20 |
8.6 |
With the exception of the early months of the season, Lester’s stats are pretty consistent and very good. June is his most dominant month, but he also finishes very strong. The average temperature in Chicago in April is in the mid-50s, which is also on par with the average temp in Boston. So as the weather heats up, so too does Lester’s performance.
Run Support
|
Games |
Win% |
ERA |
|
|
0-2 Runs Scored |
64 |
.196 |
3.75 |
|
3-5 Runs Scored |
88 |
.600 |
3.41 |
|
6+ Runs Scored |
100 |
.972 |
3.63 |
I listed the number of games so you could see how frequently he pitched in the given situations. Luckily for him, Lester has pitched in fewer games in which his team scored 0-2 runs, because while he doesn’t perform poorly, he does not have a track record of huge success.
For comparison’s sake, Jeff Samardzija has a .033 (1-29 record) winning percentage in games which he received 0-2 runs. I don’t think this needs to be said, but if your team scores 2 or fewer runs, chances are you are not going to win those games regardless of who is on the mound.
Performance by Inning Pitched
|
IP |
ERA |
OPS |
|
|
Innings 1-3 |
752 |
3.66 |
.704 |
|
Innings 4-6 |
674 |
3.48 |
.675 |
|
Innings 7-9 |
169 |
3.57 |
.720 |
Nothing really jumps out here; Lester has pretty consistent results throughout his career no matter what inning he is pitching, which is encouraging in and of itself. He doesn’t have a ton of experience going super deep in games though, which could be a minor issue given the relative lack of innings-eaters on the Cubs staff.
For his career, Lester has only thrown 8.1 innings during the 9th and has only 11 complete games (4 shutouts) to his name.
Pitch Count Performance
|
Games |
BA |
OPS |
|
|
Pitch 1-25 |
253 |
.246 |
.693 |
|
Pitch 26-50 |
252 |
.259 |
.712 |
|
Pitch 51-75 |
251 |
.246 |
.678 |
|
Pitch 76-100 |
249 |
.251 |
.725 |
|
Pitch 100+ |
167 |
.218 |
.584 |
This was very encouraging and interesting because the performance has been very consistent and in the 167 games in which he has thrown 100+ pitches, Lester has had outstanding results. In addition to posting the lowest BA and OPS of all the given groupings, he has only given up one HR during that 100+ pitch sample.
Days Rest
|
Games |
Win% |
ERA |
K/9 |
|
|
3 Days Rest |
2 |
NA |
4.91 |
4.9 |
|
4 Days Rest |
127 |
.677 |
3.61 |
8.5 |
|
5 Days Rest |
89 |
.561 |
3.36 |
7.9 |
|
6+ Days Rest |
34 |
.667 |
4.05 |
8.1 |
Clearly, Lester has pitched most often on 4 days of rest and the results are solid. The real “sweet spot” though , appears to be from 5 days off between starts.
Day Games vs. Night Games
|
Games |
Win% |
ERA |
K/9 |
|
|
Day |
73 |
.618 |
3.21 |
8.2 |
|
Night |
179 |
.641 |
3.74 |
8.2 |
Lester’s had a pretty sizable sample of day baseball and has performed equally as well, if not even a little bit better during this time. The 8.2 K/9 is steady and the ERA is just a touch better during the day. The Cubs have been good about adding more and more night games, but it will not be a detriment to give Lester the ball during the day.
Throwing to David Ross
Lester has thrown to David Ross during 29 games (195 IP), nearly a full season, over which he has posted a 2.77 ERA with almost one K per inning (192 Ks). During times when Lester has been caught by Ross, he has given up just 1 HR every 48 ABs and allowed a .235 AVG with an OPS of .651.
It has been said that Ross won’t won’t necessarily be Lester’s personal caddy, but I don’t think that would be a bad policy given the success the two have had as a battery thus far.
Conclusion
The consistency that Lester has shown during his career is outstanding and shows why he was worthy of the largest contract handed out in team history. In any situation–time of day, month of the year, right-handed or left-handed–it doesn’t matter; Jon Lester has been about as predictable as a pitcher can be.
I am excited to see what he can do in the NL against a division that may not be as powerful offensively as the AL East and AL West. Paired with his incredibly steady track record, that could be a recipe for domination.