Shōta Imanaga’s Camp Explains QO Decision, Optimism for 2026

Given the speed at which the offseason progresses, it already seems like the whole Shōta Imanaga contract business happened a long time ago. There’s also a resemblance between that situation and last year’s brief kerfuffle over Seiya Suzuki being shopped in the hopes that he might waive his no-trade clause. With the requisite questions about a rift between either player and the Cubs organization put to bed, at least temporarily, we can move on to what’s next.

For Imanaga, that means playing under a one-year deal worth just over $22 million in the hope that he can rebuild his value after a brutal second half. It was a no-brainer for the Cubs to decline their option on a three-year extension worth $57 million for a guy they couldn’t trust in the postseason, though it wasn’t as certain that Imanaga would turn down a guarantee of at least $30.5 million. By doing so, he was able to choose between the Cubs’ qualifying offer and free agency.

Between his performance, age, and potential for a work stoppage in 2027, it’s hard to imagine a team giving him more than what he’d already turned down. But if he can regain his 2024 form, he may be able to score a multiyear deal next winter or whenever baseball opens back up. That’s what his reps at Octagon believe, anyway.

Yoshinobu Hasegawa, Octagon’s director of operations in the Pacific Rim, told reporters at the Winter Meetings in Orlando that they’ve identified the cause of Imanaga’s disappointing performance. As indicated at the outset of free agency, they believe health was one of the factors involved. The quotes below have been translated from the comments Hasegawa made in his native tongue, so fair warning that the language is a little funky.

“We were able to determine that certain issues could be properly resolved,” Hasegawa said. “He’ll be physically fit for next season. I entered the offseason confident that there would be no chance of him getting used to hitters [probably hitters getting used to him], as people often say, and becoming unplayable.”

“Imanaga’s performance next season is absolutely fine. If he spends another year in a familiar environment, he’ll likely achieve the same results as in his first year in 2024, I think he’ll be able to perform better if he plays in the same environment for another year.”

That speaks to the Cubs’ pitching infrastructure as much as anything, since a lack of confidence in their personnel might have sent Imanaga packing. Between their support and the added comfort of another season in the same place, taking the QO struck Imanaga’s camp as the best way to move forward. This next part reads a little like it’s Imanaga himself talking, but I believe that’s just a function of either the translation or Hasegawa paraphrasing his client.

“First, I made a comprehensive decision about where I can shine the most, to clear up the last month of this season,” the agency rep explained. “The Cubs’ offer wasn’t a bad idea, and I thought it wouldn’t be a bad decision to stay another year and have another good season with the Cubs. After much discussion, we came to this conclusion.”

There were reports following the decision that the Cubs were taken aback by Imanaga’s return, and that his acceptance of the $22.025 million QO salary handcuffed them financially. If true, that would be an even more egregious misstep than letting Drew Smyly keep racking up escalators two years ago. Contrary to what a lot of fans apparently believe, Jed Hoyer and his front office cohorts aren’t that dumb. I mean, right?

Anyway, the Cubs are reportedly operating with the $244 million luxury tax penalty threshold as a soft cap, leaving them with around $48 million or so to play with. Most of that figures to go toward pitching, with Hoyer continuing to say as much and Sahadev Sharma reporting that the team is willing to take a step back offensively to ensure they have the requisite depth and quality on their pitching staff.

It isn’t outside the realm of possibility to think the Cubs could sign a top free agent pitcher like Michael King, Zac Gallen, or Tatsuya Imai while also trading for a big arm.