Justin Steele Working to Develop More Confidence in Changeup

Justin Steele‘s changeup has been a pet topic of mine since I talked to him about it at Cubs Convention five years ago, but it has never been more than a show-me offering. Even that might be too generous a description for a pitch he’s thrown very sparingly with inconsistent results. That tends to happen when you can’t develop a feel for it, which in this case was a matter of Steele trying to throw against his natural inclination.

By that, I mean he’s a heavy supinator who had been trying to throw a type of change up that required him to pronate, or get over the top of the ball. Some pitchers use a cue of trying to “throw the ball away from your face,” but that really only works well for athletes who can naturally move that way. Devin Williams has been successful with his freakish Airbender changeup because he’s got the ability to hyper-pronate to get much higher spin than usual. Even most other pronators can’t do that.

Cole Hamels was also a big pronator, and it was his grip Steele adopted after picking the elder statesman’s brain during spring training in 2019. Upon learning that, I felt the implementation of a strong offspeed pitch would be huge for Steele. Little did I know at the time that it was doomed to fail because there was simply no way for Steele to come anywhere near Hamels’ effectiveness. As understanding of motor preferences has advanced, however, it looks like Steele could find success with a new version of the pitch.

I had hoped for as much when looking at various repertoire unlocks and how new front office addition Tyler Zombro might apply his biomechanical knowledge. Gone are the days when you can just copy/paste a grip and hope for the best. Arm slot and motor preferences play a huge role in determining what pitch types will work best for what pitchers.

“Every athlete is built differently,” Zombro told The Athletic. “To tie this back in with my premed major, you start at the ground floor of the guy’s anatomy, his physiology, his range of motion on each joint, how he moves. You have to take every piece of evidence — from anatomical range of motion, how the guy’s built, his injury history, how does that impact how he moves biomechanically, and ultimately, how does that change how he applies force to the ball and how do we maximize what he individually can do. That looks different for every pitcher.”

My initial thought was that Steele would benefit from shifting to a two-seam orientation, possibly the kick change that Zombro and his former colleagues at Tread Athletics have made so popular. While the lefty may have rotated the ball a bit, a discussion I had with someone at this most recent CubsCon revealed that he is apparently using more of a split grip. Just as it would have been with the kick, the key here is that Steele can just throw the pitch naturally rather than forcing pronation.

Going with a modified splitter of some sort should help Steele to create more depth on the changeup than he’s gotten in the past. Not only will that further differentiate the shape from his cut-ride fastball, but it could help the slider play up by giving him something that works to the arm side with similar vertical movement. Regardless of its exact characteristics, it’s most important that the pitch is consistent and repeatable.

“If I get to a place where a catcher calls a changeup and I feel as confident in that as I do throwing my four-seamer/slider, I feel like that would be pretty dangerous,” Steele told reporters after his Friday outing. “It’s something I’m definitely striving for results with. I want to get the good results so that way I build the confidence going into the season.”

We may only be talking about a pitch Steele will throw 5-10% of the time, but being able to do so with conviction will make him better and keep hitters from sitting on the four-seam/slider combo that makes up the vast majority of his mix. As good as he’s been with that highly limited repertoire, opposing hitters should be very worried about what happens if the change works. They might have nightmares about the prospect of him honing a sinker as well.

“The fastball-slider combination he has down,” Jed Hoyer said recently. “The next level? I don’t think you ever want to go away from your strengths, but if he ever gets to a point where you can really mix in a changeup or two-seamer, I think that’s where he gets to another level.”