Nico Hoerner Remains Highly Underrated
Nico Hoerner has been one of the Cubs’ most valuable and dependable players over the last three seasons, yet he remains underrated for some reason. Okay, the reason is that he missed a lot of time due to injury early on and doesn’t hit many homers. Whether it’s fans clamoring to trade him or MLB Network succeeding in their effort to produce engagement bait with a ranking of the top 10 second basemen, people are constantly overlooking just how good Hoerner really is.
Here are the Top 10 second basemen in the Big Leagues, according to The Shredder! @MLBNow | #Top10RightNow pic.twitter.com/nTk1JGohWU
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 17, 2025
Even with full understanding that these lists are subjective, it’s a travesty to have Hoerner at No. 8 given the rest of the group. Take Jazz Chisholm Jr., who has only primarily played second in two seasons and accumulated only 1,237.1 innings there over the last three years. Hoerner had three fewer innings at second base last season alone. What’s more, Hoerner’s 14.3 fWAR since 2021 far outstrips the 10.3 Chisholm has managed. But any comparison between individuals on a list curated specifically to create conversation is somewhat futile.
Let’s focus instead on Hoerner’s value, which is much higher than most folks seem to believe. Over the last four seasons, no Cubs player is within two wins of Hoerner’s fWAR mark noted above. And that’s with him playing only 44 games in the first season of the sample, though he still put up 1.5 fWAR despite the abbreviated campaign. Hoerner is tied for 35th in all of MLB over that span, which I’d offer is not too shabby.
If we narrow the focus to just the last three seasons, Hoerner’s 12.8 fWAR ranks 25th in MLB, ahead of Andres Giménez (12.7), Xander Bogaerts (12.6), Rafael Devers, and Willy Adames (12.5). Got some very highly paid middle infielders in that group. Hoerner’s three-year, $35 million extension is one-third the amount of the next-lowest contract in that group. Giménez (7 years, $106.5 million), Bogaerts (11, $280M) Devers (10, $313.5M), and Adames (7, $182M) combine for $882 million with an average AAV of roughly $24.5 million.
And yeah, I get that shortstops are going to make more than second basemen, but surely you understand the point.
That incredible value alone should be enough for the Cubs to view Hoerner as a pillar of their roster construction, especially with payroll space apparently at a premium. But because he isn’t super flashy, he flies under the radar and gives rise to the belief that the Cubs could simply replace his production with a rookie. I mean, sure, it’s possible Matt Shaw could come up and be a 4+ fWAR dude right out of the gate. Even as a big believer in his future, I wouldn’t make that bet.
It’s also important to realize that Hoerner’s lone significant weakness is more than mitigated by the things he does well, like playing Gold Glove defense and running the bases at an elite level. Again looking at the last three seasons, Hoerner’s aggregate Def score (Fangraphs’ comprehensive defensive metric) of 36.8 is tied for 11th overall; his 15.1 BsR (baserunning runs) is tied for sixth; and his 94 stolen bases rank fourth. That latter figure is only two fewer than the next three Cubs combined.
Oh, I almost forgot to mention that Hoerner’s 11.2% strikeout rate is the fourth-lowest in MLB during the chosen sample. The next-lowest current Cub is Ian Happ, and his 23.6% mark is more than twice as high. The things Hoerner does well, he does so much better than anyone else on the team — other than Dansby Swanson‘s defense, of course — that attempting to replace his production would be folly.
Which is to say you might want to think about how your face will look the next time you consider cutting your nose off just because your nostrils aren’t perfectly symmetrical.