Cubs Hoping Matthew Boyd Can Log 120 Innings as Piece of Larger Pitching Staff Puzzle
Lefty Matthew Boyd hasn’t pitched as many as 79 innings in a season since 2019 with the Tigers, but the Cubs are hoping his performance at the end of last year can be stretched over a much larger sample. From the sounds of it, the team is hoping the 34-year-old (in February) can bounce back in 2025 to work almost as many frames as he’s tallied over the last three seasons combined (124). Speaking with 670 The Score’s Mully & Haugh Wednesday morning, pitching coach Tommy Hottovy laid out some of the Cubs’ thoughts on their new southpaw
“There’s definitely some risk/reward there,” Hottovy said of the oft-injured Boyd, “Just with the fact of his innings limits over the last three to four years. But with that being said, I think part of the process when you’re evaluating players is where are they now, what injuries are they coming off of, how did they finish, how are they feeling. Getting eyes on them in the offseason is important…
Tommy Hottovy on the recently signed Matthew Boyd, who has dealt with injuries: “If we’re sitting here today and we say, ‘Matt Boyd throws 120 innings of really good baseball,’ I think we’d all be really happy … We know when he’s on the field, he’s a really good pitcher.” pic.twitter.com/AJ4WbliUXO
— 670 The Score (@670TheScore) January 15, 2025
“If we’re sitting here today and we say, ‘Matt Boyd throws 120 innings of really good baseball,’ I think we’d all be really happy about that. Anything above that would be great. We know when he’s on the field, he’s a really good pitcher.”
All five of the Cubs’ primary starters last season logged at least 10 more innings than that target, with Kyle Hendricks (130.2) and Justin Steele (134.2) coming closest. Of course, Hendricks spent time in the bullpen and Steele was on the IL for over a month at the beginning of the season. Even getting Boyd to his highest workload in six years could mean creating a deficit from a team that finished 12th in MLB with 861 innings from starters.
While that isn’t necessarily a bad thing in theory, especially considering the Brewers were 26th with 794 starter innings, putting additional pressure on a bullpen that still needs work isn’t a great plan. There’s a big difference between hoping a few guys exceed expectations and effectively forcing them to by failing to implement proper precautions. The Cubs have done a little work on that front, uninspiring though it may be, and the whole picture has yet to come into full focus as they round out the roster.
“One thing Counsell talks about all the time is it’s a puzzle,” Hottovy added. “It’s a puzzle to cover 1,400 almost 1,500 innings in the course of the season. If you’re a good team, your starting rotation is good, you’re covering 850 to 900, 950 of those innings. That’s all one big puzzle, you’re putting the pieces together.
“I think the combination of signing a Matt Boyd with the upside but with some injury history with guys like Colin Rea being able to cover some of that, knowing that you have some guys that can step in and cover some major innings if we need to make some moves, I think is really important.”
For the sake of context, only 15 teams got more than 850 innings from their starters and only four exceeded 900. No team made it to 950, with the Mariners and their incredibly young/cheap/dynamic rotation logging 942.2 frames.
Based on what Hottovy said, it sounds like the Cubs will utilize Rea as a long reliever and/or swingman. That’s the same role he had during his first stint with them in 2020, except they’re hoping to get more than 14 innings over nine appearances this time. As for who will pick up the slack, well, that remains to be seen. Jordan Wicks and Ben Brown should be regulars one way or the other as long as they’re both healthy. Speaking of which, Cade Horton should debut in ’25 provided that subscapularis strain isn’t really something of greater concern than the club has let on.
Brandon Birdsell was named the club’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year for 2024 and should be available for spot starts at the very least. There will surely be some bullpen days and perhaps a piggyback outing here and there, but I maintain the best option would be to go after Jack Flaherty or another competent starter and roll with a six-man or modified rotation. Nick Pivetta is another option, but he’s tied to QO penalties and it’s hard to see the Cubs giving up the requisite draft picks and international pool money unless they get an absolute steal.
As of this moment, Hottovy and Counsell are trying to put together a puzzle that has a few pieces missing. That’s been the case for the Cubs heading into most seasons, as a patchwork bullpen leaves the manager figuring things out on the fly well into the summer. We’ve heard Hoyer talk publicly on more than one occasion about buying certainty for the ‘pen and avoiding mistakes of the past with that unit, but we’ve yet to see much action toward that end.
Perhaps we’ll get more movement now that Hoyer can turn to other pursuits after Roki Sasaki told the Cubs to pound sand. Politely, though, I’m sure.