AP Photo/Jeff Dean

Jorge López Joins Nats, Tanner Scott’s Prohibitive Asking Price, International Prospect Flips from Dodgers to Pirates

Photo of Evan Altman Evan AltmanJanuary 11, 2025

The Cubs signing Colin Rea should have given me enough to write about for at least three days, but I’m going against my better judgment to cover two other topics that are only tangential to our namesake club. That’s because, monster Rea deal aside, Jed Hoyer hasn’t really done much lately. And depending on how you choose to interpret the latter topic, one very splashy potential move may have gotten far less likely.

First up is Jorge López, the righty reliever who rebuilt his value with the Cubs down the stretch after being drummed out of Flushing following an implosion with the Mets. Many wondered whether a reunion on the North Side was possible, especially with López having found success there while carrying a relatively low price tag. But it appears the Cubs were not interested or weren’t willing to stretch to the $3 million figure Washington guaranteed.

The relief market is heating up after a slow start, so the Cubs should probably get moving if they’re going to make meaningful changes to a group that still needs an upgrade or two. Trouble is, high prices could once again keep Hoyer from doing any shopping until all the big arms are gone. Jeff Hoffman is already off the table after signing a three-year, $33 million deal with the Blue Jays to work as a high-leverage reliever. If that sounds like an unnecessary note given the subject, there had been a lot of buzz about Hoffman converting to the rotation like Clay Holmes with the Mets.

Another name many have connected to the Cubs is lefty Tanner Scott, who has saved 52 games over the last three years and has made 275 appearances over the last four. A big-time strikeout guy, Scott has tamped down the walks over the last two seasons and has been among the best in the majors at limiting homers in that time. His riding 97 mph fastball and sharp slider thrown from a low three-quarters arm slot cause all kinds of problems for opposing hitters.

Sounds like exactly the kind of impact arm the Cubs could use at the back end of the bullpen, right? Except that his asking price could exceed four years and $60 million, something Marquee’s Lance Brozdowski speculated recently. Barring a drastic break from Hoyer’s long-running bullpen strategy, the Cubs aren’t touching that. Kirby Yates has also been connected to Chicago and should fall more within the Cubs’ range as a 37-year-old who may only command a one-year deal.

Brozdowski noted a tweak to Yates’s fastball location last season that led to him posting a 1.17 ERA over 61 appearances for the Rangers. Always a high-ride guy who really stays behind the ball, Yates gets very little glove-side movement on his heater. That allows him to bust righties up and in while keeping the ball up and away against lefties, which resulted in tremendous splits in 2024. Righties were limited to a .137/.221/.188 slash while lefties were completely stifled with a .081/.229/.174 line.

Hoyer has hinted multiple times that he’ll be more aggressive than usual in his relief pursuits, but we’ve yet to see any indication that his actions will match his words. Since splurging on Scott is probably way out of the question at those prices, giving Yates $14-15 million for one year would be far more likely even if that price is still a big stretch for a club that is being far too cost-conscious.

That’s why Japanese pitching phenom Rōki Sasaki looks like such a perfect fit. His amateur status means he’s limited to a rookie deal and a bonus from his new team’s international pool, which doesn’t apply to payroll for the sake of luxury tax calculations. How ecstatic would Hoyer and Cubs ownership be with the value of landing a potential stud starter at such a bargain?

Several other teams would be just as happy to have Sasaki, though most of the other clubs in contention for his services are also willing to spend big on other star players. Teams like, say, the Dodgers. While I don’t believe Sasaki will demand a max bonus after already choosing to forego hundreds of millions in salary by leaving Japan two years early, he’s going to get enough that his team is going to have to renege on verbal agreements with several other players in the 2025 international free agent class.

That’s why Dominican shortstop prospect Darell Morel flipping from the Dodgers to the Pirates is noteworthy. While not unheard of, the timing and the team he’s walking away from raised an eyebrow or three. The Dodgers have long been viewed as the favorite to land Sasaki, though I don’t think this is necessarily a sign that they’re about to do just that. Rather, the uncertainty of his deal with LA and the Pirates’ willingness to double his bonus to around $1.8 million precipitated this move.

We could see similar defections with other players of Morel’s ilk as at least a half-dozen teams believe they’re still in the running for Sasaki. Even though all but one of them will still have their entire pools intact, the inability to guarantee their agreed-upon deals might have young players seeking other opportunities as non-Sasaki suitors actively work to poach them. We’re talking about life-changing money for players who may have grown up in squalor, so having that vanish through no fault of their own is not a fun thought.

As Ben Badler of Baseball America noted, this situation could see a team or two holding out for Sasaki only to watch him sign elsewhere while their top international prospects likewise bolt for other teams in the meantime. That hasn’t happened yet as Morel isn’t among the top 50 international prospects according to MLB Pipeline, but we could see more flipping before and after January 15 when the new signing period opens.

I am probably less confident than ever about the Cubs’ chances to land Sasaki, but boy do I hope that’s wrong.

Photo of Evan Altman Evan AltmanJanuary 11, 2025
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