Cubs Notes Roundup: Potential for Rizzo Reunion(?), RP Market Still Sluggish, PCA’s Blazing Speed, Roster Looks Decent

As a general rule, I take it easy this time of year to give myself a chance to recharge a little after publishing nearly 700 posts over the course of the year. Some of those require very little mental effort, but that’s still a lot. Add in the several hundred others I edit and you can see why I might want to step back now and then. It sure doesn’t help that the Cubs have been so quiet lately.

All they’ve done of note over the last week or so is send Matt Mervis to Miami in exchange for versatile defender Vidal Bruján, which on the surface looks like a watered-down challenge trade. Upon further investigation, and perhaps some creative license, it’s possible there’s a bit more depth to it than that. Both Mervis and Bruján had trouble carrying their minor league performance to the highest level and had no more runway with their respective teams.

Despite what many short-sighted fans want to believe, Mervis never got much of a shot with the Cubs. For one reason or another, the organization apparently didn’t have faith in him. That’s why Trey Mancini (263 plate appearances) and Eric Hosmer (100) were given more opportunities than Mervis (99) in 2023. An abbreviated promotion this past season gave Mervis another 28 PAs, but those came almost exclusively as the DH since Michael Busch had been installed as the everyday first baseman.

With nowhere to play in Chicago and his spot on the 40-man presumably needed for players who better fit the Cubs’ needs, Mervis was sent to a team that should be able to provide him more runway. Say what you will about Jed Hoyer, the man seems to be great at trading players to situations that best suit them. The return is obviously most important, but Hoyer might be the best in the business when it comes to doing right by the guys he trades away. To be honest, though, that’s probably a pretty low bar to clear.

To that end, I wonder whether sending Mervis to Miami could increase the odds of a reunion with Anthony Rizzo. The former de facto captain is from South Florida and I had thought for a while that trading him to the Marlins would have been the play a few years back. Christina De Nicola of MLB.com named Rizzo the most realistic free-agent target for the Marlins, but that’s before the trade in question. That could still be the case, but I wonder whether the Cubs might generate a stronger pull.

We already know they love to pick up aging first baseman with little to nothing left in the tank, and the 35-year-old Rizzo is indeed well past his prime. He’s still a strong veteran presence who can provide depth at first now that Cody Bellinger has been sent to New York, plus his price tag should line up with Hoyer’s value calculations. It may just be a matter of whether Rizzo wants to stay close to his original hometown or the place that made him a star.

Then again, maybe the Cubs would be better off giving Owen Caissie a little run at first base in order to find him more playing time than the deep outfield will afford on its own. The acquisition of Kyle Tucker gives the Cubs one of the strongest outfield units in baseball, which should have seen Hoyer turning his attention to other areas of the roster. As has been the case in most offseasons, however, it looks like the Cubs are waiting for the pitching market to come to them.

Everyone expected that when it came to starters, especially with prices shooting up and staying high so far. That’s why it was so wild to me when people allowed themselves to believe the Cubs might use the money they saved by trading Bellinger to sign Corbin Burnes. Every indication from the very beginning was that they had zero intention of paying what it would have cost, and that’s even if you believe Burnes’ cutter can get its groove back.

No, this is a situation in which they’ll either trade for someone — Pablo López and Luis Castillo have been the big names there — or wait until Jack Flaherty has to settle for a one-year deal. That’s unlikely given projections of $115 million for five years and the three-year, $75 million deals for Sean Manaea and Nathan Eovaldi.

The bullpen is where Hoyer was supposed to — and still could — invest the most money, at least from a relative standpoint. After acknowledging for a while now that their patchwork strategy hasn’t yielded the best results, it seemed the Cubs would be in on dudes like Kirby Yates and Carlos Estévez with high-leverage pedigrees. Those guys don’t come cheap, as evidenced by the three-year, $38 million deal Clay Holmes got from the Mets to return to the rotation. I still like Yates on a one-year contract, but it’s hard to see the Cubs doing something close to what Holmes got to land Charlie Sheen.

The slow pace of the relief market is working in Hoyer’s favor, with Yates, Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, A.J. Minter, and Andrew Kittredge still available. My fear is that the Cubs will see who’s still left and willing to take a discount in February, but I remain hopeful that Hoyer will use some of that Bellinger money to make an uncharacteristic splurge.

Whoever the Cubs add to the staff will have the benefit of pitching in front of a defense filled with Gold Glovers, either actual or eventual. Tucker and Ian Happ have both won at the corner outfield spots, Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson are perennial favorites up the middle, Busch turned himself into an elite defender at first, and center will be Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s to lose for the remainder of his career. His speed and awareness are elite and as fun as his defense is to watch, the best proof of his talent may not be a web gem.

Back on August 23 against the Marlins, PCA laced a liner to right and sprinted all the way around the bases in 14.08 seconds to record the fastest inside-the-park home run since Byron Buxton‘s 13.85 in 2017. He reached 30.4 ft/sec, barely shy of Bobby Witt Jr.‘s MLB-leading 30.5 ft/sec, and put the league on notice that he’s going to be a menace moving forward.

Pete Crow-Armstrong was ZOOMING around the bases on this inside-the-park homer!

The @Cubs rookie posts a 14.1 sec home-to-home time, tops in @MLB this season. pic.twitter.com/P4AzcXGXVF

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) August 23, 2024

At the risk of continuing the positivity all the way through the conclusion, I find myself liking the Cubs roster more and more every time I think about it. The defense is strong to quite strong, there’s a good mix of veteran leadership and youthful energy, and the pitching staff is solid with the potential for some upside if the less-experienced arms can contribute. A competent bullpen and just a little more consistency at the plate in the first half could have made the Cubs a 90-win team last season, and they look better on paper heading into 2025.

Even if he falls short of expectations, which aren’t at all far-fetched anyway, Matt Shaw should provide better production at third base than we’ve seen in a while now. Tucker is the superstar bat they’ve lacked, limited control be damned. There’s still plenty of work to be done and Hoyer absolutely must improve the depth of a couple units, but you don’t have to squint to see how the Cubs can be much better.

Or, you know, you could just bemoan everything they do because you’ve made that your whole personality and it’s too difficult to change now.