Cubs Appear to Be Moving in Different Direction as Jesus Luzardo Trade Talks Reportedly ‘Dead’
Maybe it’s because the Marlins’ ask was too big or maybe it was a matter of Jed Hoyer using his burner account to see how many fans on social media abhor the idea of having four lefties in the lineup. Whatever the case, the Cubs’ oft-reported pursuit of starter Jesús Luzardo may have reached an end. While I never fully warmed to the idea, it was starting to feel like as much of a given as the Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger trades.
Perhaps the real reason talks with the Marlins broke off is that Hoyer decided to prioritize other moves in light of having an additional $25 million in his budget. It sounds like they’re still interested in adding a closer, possibly even with a bigger deal than we’re used to seeing from them. There’s also a sense that Hoyer wants to leave a little money saved back to pursue starters whose market doesn’t develop and to stay well below the luxury tax penalty threshold.
So even though Luzardo would have been a fit because he’s only expected to get around $6 million via arbitration and is still under control for another year after next, something has apparently scuttled the proceedings.
“That deal appears to be dead right now,” Bruce Levine told 670 The Score Wednesday evening. “We don’t know what the reason is, it was very hot for a long period of time. Maybe the medicals on one side or the other [weren’t] good. So they’ll be shifting, they still need another starting pitcher in my mind. They have plenty of starting pitching, there’s just a redundancy of guys that throw 92 miles per hour.”
It’s easy to imagine that something with the ailing back that limited Luzardo to just 66.2 innings over 12 starts gave the Cubs pause. Or perhaps one of the players who would have gone to Miami threw up red flags. The most likely reason may be that the resultant outcome of their talks didn’t meet the standards of the mythical value algorithm produced by the Cubs’ Ivy system.
The same is true for larger pursuits, rumors of which gained steam as the Bellinger deal grew closer and finally came to fruition. It’s almost as though representatives for unsigned high-dollar free agents want to use Hoyer’s newfound budget flexibility for leverage. That means no Corbin Burnes and no Alex Bregman on the North Side unless they come to Wrigley as visitors.
I’ve already expressed my concerns about the former, whose strikeout numbers are trending down as his cutter appears to be losing effectiveness. The Cubs have been out on him from the start despite some early rumors otherwise and they remain so despite some of those recent rumors otherwise.
“Look, if I told you that Mr. Ricketts opened the pursestrings up and, Corbin Burnes, he said, ‘Go and give him 35 (million) a year for the next eight years,’ Levine offered. “Would that make them the division champions? Would that make them World Series contenders? A lot of people would say yes, right? But from the practical perspective right now, I think you’re going to see them go after some bullpen arms.
When it comes to potential targets, there are a few names that have stood out over the last few weeks. Non-tendered closer Kyle Finnegan is still available and has been connected to the Cubs, who surely like the lone year of commitment to a guy who is eager to prove his worth ahead of free agency next winter. He’s not alone, of course, and there are certainly other pitchers available who fit what Hoyer is looking for.
“They definitely need to look at some of the guys like Kirby Yates, who’s out there that can help at the back end and help close games,” Levine said. “They need a left-hander. They’ve needed a left-hander for two years and they’re gonna go out there. There’s a guy named Hoby Miler who’s with Milwaukee that was non-tendered that was a pretty good-looking pitcher, has been around a little bit. They might be going after somebody like that.
“They’re going to stay busy. Is there a big deal? Is there a big free agent down the line? I can’t see a big free agent at this point.”
That brings us around to Bregman again, or rather what the Cubs will do at third base instead of paying close to $200 million for the former Astros star. Hoyer said earlier in the week that Matt Shaw will get a “long look” at third base this spring, which is as close as the POBO will get to saying the job is the rookie’s to lose. Early ZiPS projections have the Cubs getting 2.7 WAR from Shaw and Rule 5 pickup Gage Workman at the hot corner, which would be a huge improvement over the production of a rotation cast this past season.
A much more likely addition would be an infielder who can capably handle third base and at least one other infield spot in order to push Shaw during spring training and provide a little insurance as well. Former White Sox standout Yoán Moncada has been mentioned as a possibility there, and there’s been some buzz around the idea of acquiring Willi Castro from the Twins.
Listed as a shortstop due to spending 465.2 innings there in 2024, Castro also logged 286.1 innings at second base, 228.2 in left field, 211.1 in center, and 141 at third. And he did it all while providing 3.1 fWAR with a 108 wRC+ and 12 homers in 635 plate appearances. That should roughly double his salary to a little over $6 million for next season, but only being under control for one year will mitigate the cost a bit. I wonder if James Triantos, who was reportedly part of the Luzardo talks, would be in play here.
Hoyer has a lot of plates spinning right now and would probably like to remove a few more of them soon in order to further clarify his focus. To that end, it does seem as though free-agent relievers are the priority when it comes to reallocating the Bellinger funds. I’d imagine we see most of the $25 million the Cubs freed up spent across two or three deals in the $6-10 million range, with Yates or Finnegan headlining the group. Milner could be another one and other possibilities include Tanner Scott, A.J. Minter, and old friend Andrew Chafin.
My expectation is that we see the Cubs get something done on that front before Christmas, then things may cool as the league awaits Rōki Sasaki’s decision. The Japanese phenom can sign between January 15-23, after which the starting pitching market should both accelerate and come down to earth a bit. Burnes is the last remaining starter who’ll command big money, with guys like Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler finding homes as much cheaper fallback options.
I’ll wrap this up with a little contest or challenge. No actual prizes other than bragging rights and an “attaboy” or two, but let’s see who can most accurately predict three moves the Cubs make next. Just throw out the names of three players you think they’ll acquire one way or the other between now and the end of January and I’ll try to remember to revisit this at that point.
My bold prediction is Finnegan (need another Kyle after losing Hendricks), Moncada (crosstown connection), and Flaherty (getting on the right side of the rivalry).