Let’s All Get Really Mad or Excited About 4 Paths Cubs Could Follow

Social media is no different from the playground in elementary school, with hearsay traveling like wildfire across a windswept plain in the summer. There’s little room for context and you can forget about the fidelity of translation when a rumor or report has touched four different hands before some pundit’s feverish fingers tap out a communiqué before their colleagues can. And god forbid this is all happening while traversing the lobby of the Hilton Anatole on the trail of another scoop, leading to words being crafted with slightly less care than usual.

Ken Rosenthal was the first to mention that the Astros were interested in Seiya Suzuki as part of a Kyle Tucker deal, but he immediately tempered that report by saying the Cubs were “highly unlikely” to trade him. But because headlines are often viewed as gospel and articles themselves are skimmed, that additional information didn’t carry as much weight. Then you’ve got all the talk about the Astros asking for either Matt Shaw or Cam Smith, something that’s been repeated more than once.

I have no doubt some of this is a matter of folks essentially using other reports as sources, but there’s also a measure of ignorance on the part of the end users. Apologies for using what might come off as a harsh pejorative, there’s just not a much softer way to put it. What I mean is that we tend to collectively suspend the most basic concepts of how negotiations work. Of course the Astros are asking for an unrealistic return like Shaw and of course Tucker’s camp is floating the idea that he doesn’t want to sign an extension.

Folks, the Cubs are not trading Shaw as part of the return for Tucker. They’re not trading Shaw at all, so let’s stop getting mad about that one. We should probably also take Smith out of his protective wrapping. Dude’s been even better than expected so far as a professional, but acting like he’s untouchable in a deal for an elite outfielder is a bridge too far. I’d add that we shouldn’t preemptively expect Jed Hoyer to fuck this up, but that would just be yelling into the void because a broad swath of fans feel like the band that sang Epic.

The discourse around the Tucker and Cody Bellinger trade rumors that have dominated the conversation for much of the week is like climbing into the world’s largest bumper car ride and having your brain rattled for hours at a time. Good thing my brain is already smooth like an egg. My exhaustive review of all the different topics has led me to distill three primary directions the Cubs can take. Now fasten those seatbelts, because this one might get wordy.

Stand Pat on Bats, Add Arms Instead

This is my least favorite, but it seems to be gaining traction among those who feel the Cubs would be parting with too much or gaining too little in the hypothetical deals on the table. The thing is, there’s legitimate plausibility to the idea that this team could win 90 games by staying in the middle lane and just having a stronger bullpen with more consistent offensive performance. A summer in which the wind doesn’t tank soft-hitting sluggers like Bellinger and Isaac Paredes would help as well.

Someone may call me out on that, but neither of those dude is built to hit for power in suboptimal conditions. Among 268 players with at least 500 recorded swings this past season, Paredes was tied for 244th (68.2 mph) and Bellinger was 229th (69.0, nice) in terms of swing speed. The league average is right around 71.5 mph, in case you were wondering. We previously looked at how Paredes can improve his results going forward, but the best bet for him is probably to move to a ballpark with a shorter porch in left field.

Oh yeah, this part is about keeping everyone. Let’s say the Cubs get better full-season performances from Suzuki, Bellinger, Paredes, Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, and Pete Crow-Armstrong. That could give them another 4-5 wins easy. Then you give Craig Counsell a bullpen that doesn’t blow 25+ saves and you figure they win a few more; blowing a save doesn’t mean they lost the game, so keep that in mind. Grab Kirby Yates and/or Andrew Chafin and maybe another starter, you’ve got your 90-win team.

Or so the ideal outcomes would tell us.

Trade for Tucker, Send Bellinger to Yankees

This is my favorite because I’ve decided to hitch my wagon to the Tucker-or-bust train roaring through town. I’ve also long been an advocate of moving Bellinger because I had hoped he was going to opt out. The Yankees are a perfect fit for a lefty batter who can play center, left, and first, plus Bellinger gets a bump from more favorable dimensions and environment. Buying down enough of the remaining guarantee — I say $12.5 million should be good — could net the Cubs Will Warren and a lottery ticket in return.

Tucker is arguably a top-10 hitter in MLB over the last five years, so we’re talking a bona fide elite producer over a large enough sample to be trustworthy. His 143 wRC+ over that span is higher than any Cubs player has put up in any single season over that same span. It’s pretty incredible how much more dynamic he would make their lineup immediately.

There’s plenty of trepidation about the cost, particularly if Tucker isn’t willing to sign an extension or if the Cubs aren’t willing to pay what it’ll take to lock him down long-term. That should factor into the return, with the Cubs giving up more should Tucker talk turkey as part of the agreement. Paredes is a given and I think we see Owen Caissie or Kevin Alcántara heading to Houston if an extension is on the table. Maybe it’s Alexander Canario if they’re looking at a rental. One of Hayden Wesneski, Jordan Wicks, or Javier Assad could be included, then perhaps Smith or Cole Mathis as the final piece.

There’s been a lot of talk about how even the lighter end of that deal would be too much to sacrifice for a rental, but I disagree. Hoyer needs to do something to shake this organization out of the doldrums, and adding Tucker would do just that even if he departs next year as a free agent. Acquiring a hitter better than anyone they’ve had since prime Kris Bryant instantly improves the team and puts the rest of the league on notice that the Cubs are for real.

Trading Bellinger means they’ve got plenty of room to go big on an extension and/or to add meaningfully to the pitching staff while still having a buffer for buy trades during the season.

As I was about to publish, Bruce Levine dropped a note that the Cubs and Astros are “circling on a deal” that would send Paredes and Smith to Houston for Tucker. If that’s all it is, Hoyer should agree to it immediately and then get Cashman on the horn.

Same as Above, Plus Trade Suzuki

Remember a few hundred words ago when I said standing pat was my least favorite option? I lied, it’s this one. Kill it with fire because parting with Suzuki, who has been the Cubs’ best hitter over the past two seasons combined, would create too big a hole for Tucker to dig out of by himself. I suppose there’s the option of signing Pete Alonso to provide power, but keeping all those plates spinning would be very difficult.

My opinion of Alonso’s value over the length of what I presume would be a five-year deal is lower than most, so take this all with a grain of salt. This just feels like it’d be kind of gimmicky, though there’s certainly a clear path for it to work out. Still, the only thing I would really like about it is seeing the Cubs with both of the Mets’ former Petes.

Turn Team Over to Kids

If all else fails, Hoyer could just execute a few sell trades to clear room for Caissie, Shaw, Alcántara, Moises Ballesteros, and James Triantos to break camp with the big club. This would be dumb af from both competitive and developmental standpoints, but at least it would recalibrate expectations and give fans something different than the Run-It-Back 2.0 strategy currently in place. Theo Epstein’s legacy may be unimpeachable, but his tenure in Chicago concluded with a stagnant roster that was kept mostly intact while hoping multiple players would suddenly change their approaches.

Would they even be able to sniff .500 without Suzuki, Bellinger, Paredes, and Nico Hoerner? Hell no, but young players are bound to be more exciting than the milquetoast product we’ve been exposed to for the last few years now. Not that it’ll happen, but I prefer this to the idea of running it back. And the margin isn’t particularly close.

A lot of possibilities are in flight and we could have a much clearer picture of what the Cubs are planning by Monday. I’ll close by sharing a comment from Rosenthal in a recent piece about how the Yankees should go big for Tucker. Before getting to that, he actually noted that the Cubs could pull off a deal for Tucker and also sign Alex Bregman.

“That is the kind of plan the Cubs actually might pursue if owner Tom Ricketts were operating the team as a big-market behemoth rather than an efficient Midwest bank.”