AP Photo/Jeff Dean

The Rundown: Hoyer Has Plenty of Bullpen Options, Hendricks Heads West, Rays Contact Soto

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterNovember 7, 2024

“I see you got your list out. Say your piece and get out.” – Grateful Dead, Touch of Grey

Jed Hoyer does not intend to spend much money to improve his bullpen, which may not be a bad thing for once. Chicago didn’t catch lightning in a bottle with the acquisition of Hector Neris, and this year’s cast of high-end free-agent relievers also come with warts of all shapes and sizes.

“How do you allocate those dollars as safely as you can?” Hoyer said. “The bullpen dollars are more volatile. You’re more likely to find impact in the bullpen in minor-league free agency or in a small trade or a waiver claim.”

By the way, the contract projections that follow come from MLBTR.

  • Tanner Scott has rare velocity for a southpaw but he can be wild at times and a potential four-year, $56 million deal is tough to swallow.
  • Jeff Hoffman has posted a 2.28 ERA across 122 relief appearances for the Phillies over the last two seasons. Over that period, FanGraphs says the 3.6 WAR that Hoffman has accumulated is fifth among all relievers, but his projected $16 million AAV is a steep price to pay for someone who won’t be your closer. Hoyer may view Hoffman as a value-added rotation option instead. His wipeout slider was not part of his repertoire when he started for the Rockies and Reds, but it is now. He’d be a bargain as a starter on a 3-year, $48 million deal.
  • Clay Holmes racked up 30 saves for the Yankees but he blew another 13. No thanks.
  • Carlos Estévez possesses the power arm most teams want at the back end of their bullpens, but his 23.6% strikeout rate is unremarkable, particularly for a closer.
  • Matthew Boyd is a starter who is better suited to pitch from the bullpen. He hasn’t pitched 100 or more innings since 2019 due to injuries. Then again, the Tyler Chatwood experiment still stings.
  • Speaking of injuries, A.J. Minter should get a uniform exception from any team that signs him. He should be solely sponsored by Blue Cross/Blue Shield.
  • Kirby Yates is old and he’ll be cheap, but he’s had two Tommy John surgeries. He’s not going to get the $14 million MLBTR projects, so he may provide the value Hoyer is seeking, especially on a one-year contract. Yates doesn’t have a big arm and he walks too many batters, and though that matters less if he isn’t closing, the Cubs show a perennial propensity to blow leads in the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings.

Porter Hodge earned the right to enter 2025 as the team’s closer. He’s earning the league minimum and is still a few years away from being arbitration-eligible. Tyson Miller also earns $740,000, won’t be arb-eligible until 2027, and worked well in high-leverage situations. Jorge López is a free agent who resurrected his career after signing with Chicago, but he won’t get much more than the $2 million the Mets gave him last season. Julian Merryweather has been as consistent as any Cubs reliever when he’s been healthy.

The Cubs parted ways with Drew Smyly, who earned $10.5 million last season and was bought out for an additional $2.5 million. Hoyer can use that money for arbitration raises with the remainder allocated for lineup depth or midseason acquisitions. López is a potential diamond in the rough if Hoyer can retain him, and the back end of Chicago’s bullpen would essentially be set.

Cubs News & Notes

Odds & Sods

This is a great ad. It’s too bad that only a handful of viewers can access the digital network.

Ball Four

Hendricks should do well with the Angels and he actually looks like their best starter on paper if the season started today. Last year wasn’t kind to The Professor, at least by the standards he set in previous seasons, but he was one of Chicago’s best pitchers in September. The 34-year-old pitched to a 2.85 ERA across 28.1 innings in his last five starts. His 43.3% ground ball rate since 2020 is about league average and his 6% walk rate is nearly elite, but his 16.5% strikeout rate is well below par. Hendricks has succeeded his entire career with those numbers when he can keep the baseball inside the park. Home runs hurt him in 2024 but he only gave up one in September. He’s a bargain at $2.5 million.

As far as his legacy is concerned, Hendricks started the two most important Cubs games of our lifetimes. He shut out the Dodgers on two hits over 7.1 innings to clinch the 2016 NLCS, and then started Game 7 of the World Series, holding Cleveland to one earned run over 4.2 innings. The 11-year veteran owns a sparkling 2.64 ERA in six NCLS and World Series starts. Hendricks is not quite as good as Bob Gibson (1.78) or Sandy Koufax (0.95), but his ERA in championship series tops Greg Maddux (3.31), Justin Verlander (4.02), and Max Scherzer (4.18). Number 28 will one day make his return to Wrigley Field as a member of the team’s Hall of Fame.

Central Intelligence

Thursday Stove

Like Hoyer, Craig Breslow of the Red Sox seeks rotation and bullpen help. Boston already made the somewhat surprising decision to extend a qualifying offer to Nick Pivetta.

The Red Sox are one of two known teams to have asked the White Sox about Garrett Crochet.

Boston is also said to be open to moving any of its top prospects except Roman Anthony, including catcher Kyle Teel.

Shohei Ohtani has surgery to repair a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder. It is unclear if the injury will affect his timeline to return to the mound.

When the Dodgers moved Mookie Betts to second base, it may have been done to potentially sign Soto.

Most executives believe Soto will sign with one of the two New York teams.

Soto informed agent Scott Boras that he wants to meet face-to-face with the ownership group of each team that covets him, even Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner.

Willy Adames is open to moving to third base or outfield, while Alex Bregman would consider a move to second. Maybe the Astros should just sign both.

The Guardians agreed to terms on a one-year deal with catcher Austin Hedges.

The Tigers are open to extending ace Tarik Skubal.

New Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey is looking for a shortstop this winter.

Borascht Soup

As he does every year, Mr. Boras held court at the GM Meetings. Here are some of his best quotes.

“I think the fact that when you have something [like Soto] that no one else has in the player community and the talent arena, you have the jewel. You have the Mona Lisa of the museum…the attraction. You also have somebody who allows owners to win repeatedly, and when owners win repeatedly, their revenues skyrocket. They develop the impact of postseason play, attendance, rights in the streaming world, and international branding having one of the greats, and he has literally 15 years more of his prime to offer.”

“There’s no doubt that ‘Snelling Salts’ created a lot of whiffs. And the market has awakened.”

“Corbin Burnes continues to be a ‘Corbin copy’ of his previous seasons. He’s the foundation of having a No. 1 starter.”

Extra Innings

So long, Kyle. You don’t get the credit you deserve for removing the phrase “loveable losers” from the Cubs lexicon. Thank you for the last 11 years.

They Said It

  • “Everybody loves [Kyle]. He’s one of the best dudes I’ve ever known. He’s like a father, kind of, to me. Just the way he goes about his business. You can ask him anything, pick his brain.” – Hodge
  • “I was really impressed by our pitching last year. But we had a lot more injuries than expected. Our starting pitching kind of hung in there for us.” – Hoyer

Thursday Walk-Up Song

A little GM Meetings exit music…

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterNovember 7, 2024
Back to top button