Quantifying Hope: Hot Streak Has Cubs Almost to 4% Postseason Odds

The Cubs have won three in a row and seven of their last 10, but their playoff odds have pretty much flatlined as they may need to be even better just to grab a Wild Card spot. That’s because the Braves, who lost last night in Philly, remain five games up with 28 to play. Even if the Braves finish just 15-13 over their remaining games, the Cubs would have to go 21-7 to surpass them. I mean, sure.

Though it’s difficult to make out in the chart below, the Cubs have been under 4% postseason odds for nearly two weeks now. They did manage to reach 9.6% on August 11 — their highest mark since 10.5% on July 22 — after taking both games on the South Side, but getting swept in Cleveland set them back significantly. That was their only series loss in August and it’s looming larger all the time as days fall off the calendar.

Setting aside any talk of an unlikely playoff run, we should all be able to agree that the Cubs have at least been a lot easier to watch over the last few weeks. Wednesday’s game in Pittsburgh looked like another lost cause before they came storming back to spite fans in Pittsburgh and some of us watching from afar. Not that Cubs fans were necessarily rooting against them, just writing them off for the game and maybe the season.

For those who are surely wondering, no, I was not texting with Kevin Garnett. There is something to be said for the idea that some wins carry more perceived importance than others, and Wednesday’s comeback bore the stamp of destiny. We’ll find out soon enough whether it was done with the crappy ink that rubs off by the next morning or the good stuff that you can’t remove even with Lava soap and scalding water.

The Braves still have three more against the division-leading Phillies and the Cubs get the Nats for three in DC, so this weekend could be pivotal.