AP Photo/Carlos Osorio

The Rundown: Early Season Bullpen Struggles Hurting Cubs’ Playoff Chances, Hoyer Cuts Neris, El Mago Finally Returns

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterAugust 20, 2024

“Go it alone, honey. Rome wasn’t built in a day. But now it’s a ruin, the joke has worn thin and it isn’t cool to abuse the ability to swing.” – Thomas Dolby, The Ability to Swing

The Cubs have reached a point in the season where each win or loss is appreciably amplified in the team’s attempt to secure a Wild Card berth, one that seems nearly as impossible as winning the NL Central. Chicago is just one-half game behind the Cardinals and Reds for second place but has fallen to 5.5 games shy of a playoff berth. Additionally, the Cubs do not play any of the top contenders for the remainder of the season.

If you’re looking for a silver lining, Chicago’s North Side Baseballers have a relatively easy 37-game stretch remaining that run starts tonight with a three-game set against Javier Báez and the Tigers. That’s not the slam dunk it should be, especially when wasted opportunities result in games like Sunday’s 1-0 loss to the Blue Jays. The frustration experienced by fans is twofold: When the Cubs generate some offense, the bullpen often struggles; then there are too many games like Sunday’s when Chicago’s bats seem far too willing to hibernate until 2025.

The Cubs are 19-26 (.422) in one-run games, have blown 22 saves, and have been held scoreless in 12 games. Jed Hoyer must address those shortcomings this winter, but they’re the same flaws he faces each offseason. Chicago was 21-24 (.467) in one-run games last season, blowing 22 saves while failing to generate a single run in eight contests. In case you’re wondering, the Cubs led all of baseball with 49 blown leads in 2022, including five in the 9th inning, the second-worst in baseball. They’ve lost six times this year when entering the final frame with a lead. Put a big red circle around Hoyer’s attempts to build a bullpen.

A weak bullpen combined with an inconsistent offense is easily one of the most frustrating earmarks of Hoyer’s four-year run as Chicago’s top dog. The low-hanging fruit is Hoyer’s desire to thread the needle, but he has no previous track record of building a sustainable roster. Paralysis by over-analysis will be Hoyer’s defining trait once his run in Chicago is complete.

Sadly, the Cubs have become the baseball equivalent of Chicago’s NBA entry. Like the Bulls, Hoyer’s Cubs have managed to be averse to the heavy gravity of a .500 record. The president of baseball operations is 289-322 (.473) since taking over for Theo Epstein, while the Bulls are 904-949 (.486) since Jerry Krause kicked Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman, and Phil Jackson to the curb. Tom Ricketts — who once had the undying support of Chicago’s North Side baseball fans — is firmly entrenched in the Mt. Rushmore of bad local owners that includes Jerry Reinsdorf, Bill Wirtz, and the McCaskey family.

Next year marks the 10th anniversary since the Cubs shed their “lovable losers” image for a brand of baseball that led to four consecutive seasons of 90 wins or more. Even with a strong farm system, that type of future success seems out of reach. The organization has a lot of high-floor players matriculating through the system but none projects to be a potential superstar. Additionally, Hoyer tends to skew toward the safest financial path of adding veterans though the results have been underwhelming. There’s no sense in protecting the ability to spend $225+ million annually if he’s too afraid to swing for the fences once in a while.

Cubs News & Notes

Just Asking

Assuming Hoyer and Hawkins remain with the team in 2025, how much pressure should the duo face regarding their track record? Will next season be a playoffs-or-break season for the pair?

Ball Four

One of the biggest issues I have with Hoyer is his piecemeal approach to building a bullpen. Though I am happy to see a strong run of performances since June, the executive throws a ton of cheap acquisitions against the wall each year to see what sticks. No manager should have to wait until mid-June to have his circle of trust firmly established. Hoyer’s propensity to sift through scrap heaps for misfits three months into the season hurt David Ross and has handcuffed Counsell. The proof is in the batching: The Cubs are annually near the top of MLB in blown saves, most coming early each season. They’re also habitually poor in one-run games.

Hoyer’s panhandling obsession reminds me of Fred C. Dobbs in The Treasure of the Sierra Madre. Dobbs is driven by greed, Hoyer by divergent thinking. The message is perceived contentment and the ending was fitting for the Humphrey Bogart character, just as it will be for Chicago’s current president of baseball operations.

In case you’re wondering, Dave Dombrowski of the Phillies is Howard (Walter Huston), and Matt Arnold of the Brewers is Curtin (Tim Holt).

Odds & Sods

I don’t know if Emmanuel Clase was ever close to becoming a Cub, but man…

Central Intelligence

How About That!

Thanks to an early-season postponement, catcher Danny Jansen has an opportunity this Monday to play for both teams in a single game. Jansen was traded from the Blue Jays to the Red Sox a few weeks ago.

The Braves have signed third baseman Gio Urshela to replace the injured Austin Riley.

Many players love the Little League Classic because of its fan experience.

The Mets and Mariners will meet in next year’s Little League Classic.

With six weeks or so remaining in the 2024 season, here’s your playoff analysis in a nutshell.

The Mariners blew a 10-game lead and their playoff chances have decreased to 20.9%.

The White Sox are on a pace to lose 123 games and set a new record for earliest postseason elimination.

Sliding Into Home

Ryne Sandberg is cancer-free. Huzzah!

Extra Innings

Imagine how good the Cubs will be if Pete Crow-Armstrong continues to play like Jacoby Ellsbury in his prime. PCA is humming to the tune of a .812 OPS over the past 14 days, fueled largely by a .514 slugging mark. The rookie centerfielder does need to do a better job of getting on base, however, he does have hits in 10 of his last 15 games.

They Said It

  • “Honestly, [free agency] is not [something I’ve thought about]. With the way the year’s gone, I have to lock in on the day-to-day. I don’t even know if there would be an opportunity if I kept doing what I was doing.” – Hendricks
  • “[Making the playoffs] would be absolutely awesome. It would mean a ton just making a playoff run in general. Making it in there and playing those types of games. Especially here at Wrigley Field in front of these fans. It doesn’t get any better.” – Hendricks

Tuesday Walk-Up Song

I just don’t see a path to the playoffs this year, even with the easy schedule. We’ve been there, we know the way. This ain’t it.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterAugust 20, 2024
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