The Rundown: Hoyer Shifts Focus to 2025 and Beyond, Taillon Likeliest Cub to Be Traded, Pirates Shifting to Buy Mode

“Surrender, surrender, but don’t give yourself away.” – Cheap Trick, Surrender

The Cubs raised the white flag yesterday, and it just wasn’t because they beat the Brewers 3-1. Jed Hoyer signaled his intention to sell at the deadline, and though I don’t think he’ll sell much of anything, he is pushing the goalposts out another year. For those who haven’t tired of Hoyer’s lip service, he did say the expectation is that his team will contend for a playoff berth in 2025.

President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said “unless things change dramatically” in next week he doesn’t anticipate Cubs adding at trade deadline to help ‘24 team instead looking at moves to help in ‘25 and beyond.

Expectation again next year would be to compete for playoffs.

— Meghan Montemurro (@M_Montemurro) July 22, 2024

There’s a caveat, of course. As unrealistic as it seems right now, the president of baseball operations might be swayed to reverse course if his team starts winning. The Cubs would probably have to go 44-18 (.710) or better to win the division, though a Wild Card berth is not an impossibility. Chicago’s North Side Baseballers are 3.5 games shy of the final entry with four teams to leapfrog. If 84 wins will get them there, the Cubs need to play about .550 baseball over their final 62 games to get in.

Raise your hand if you honestly believe the Cubs will turn the tide and make the playoffs. Hoyer, who feels quite comfortable running a team that annually disappoints, should not be choosing the 26 players that will get Chicago into next season’s postseason tournament. That said, his seat may not be as comfortable as it once was. The Cubs ranked sixth in runs scored in 2023, but currently sit 24th. Hoyer replaced a triumvirate of scrubs at first base with Michael Busch, so how does one explain the team’s drastic freefall in production? Has there been a change in philosophy? Did the players suddenly forget how to hit? Did the entire roster peak last year?

Dansby Swanson was a 4.8 WAR player last year and a 5.5 WAR player the year before. This year he is worth less than one win above replacement with 60% of the season in the books. Most of the team’s offense is suffering from a similar season-long malaise.

The bullpen, however, has been a force over the team’s last 21 games. Its ERA is 1.13 and they haven’t allowed any of the 18 inherited runners to score in that span. The rotation has been even better, yet Chicago is just 11-10 in those games.

Unless Hoyer plans to trade Pete Crow-Armstrong, Nico Hoerner, Justin Steele, or Shōta Imanaga, he can’t expect much return for any of his players. He may have a similar problem this winter. Kyle Hendricks will be a free agent, but Cody Bellinger seems like a lock to opt in. Hoyer may have missed his window to trade Christopher Morel last season; Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki have NTCs; and a market ripe with premium starters and relievers means Jameson Taillon and Héctor Neris won’t fetch much at the deadline. Hoyer believed he built a winning team, but in reality, he has little to show for the $213 million and change that makes up a payroll that looks insanely bloated for such a middling team. If this is the definition of intelligent spending, then an immediate shift in philosophy is desperately needed.

The outfield logjam may prevent the Cubs from promoting players like Kevin Alcántara, Owen Caissie, and Alexander Canario. PCA, who needs a full season of regular at-bats, will be in limbo if Bellinger returns. Matt Shaw or Cam Smith could play third base if Morel is moved to DH, but what happens to James Triantos? He doesn’t get the hype he deserves, but he’s the system’s most consistent hitter.

A smart executive will find a way to make it all work, even if it means selling low on the chance that several prospects will become impact players. Hoyer seems to be a little too stubborn to accept that he’s failed with the team’s current roster construction. Still, he’s spent a lot of the Ricketts’ money this year with little to show for it while handcuffing himself with an underachieving offense. A team that pitches as well as the Cubs should be a contending team. They’re not, and Hoyer may not be the man to turn things around.

Apropos of Nothing

I didn’t want to bury Hoyer again today, but he left me no choice when he gave his concession speech. I do believe he will trade Hoerner and/or Taillon.

Cubs News & Notes

• The Cubs activated reliever Julian Merryweather, optioned Hunter Bigge, and transferred Luke Little to the 60-Day IL.
• The Cubs beat the Brewers on the strength of outstanding work by their defense and bullpen.
• Hoyer won’t go into a full-scale rebuild like he did when he traded his core in 2021.
• The chances of Chicago finding its way into the playoffs are slim, necessitating a shift in focus to 2025 and beyond in any trade negotiations.
• Taillon is the most likely Cub to be traded, though Hoyer could find new homes for a couple of his relievers.
• The Dodgers, Orioles, and Red Sox would be perfect fits for Steele.
• The price to acquire Chicago’s ace is said to be astronomical, as well it should be.
• Swanson has career lows in batting average (.210), on-base percentage (.284) and on-base plus slugging (.627).

Odds & Sods

Maybe the Cubs are just tired. After all, 66 games in 18 days is a pretty grueling schedule.

Does that make any damn sense? pic.twitter.com/HB05FomYbn

— Nisei Lounge Chicago (@NiseiLounge) July 22, 2024

Central Intelligence

• Milwaukee (57-43): Brewers manager Pat Murphy said last night’s loss is the kind that “pisses you off.”
• St. Louis (52-48): Former ESPN and CNN analyst Keith Olbermann called the Cardinals “Trump Nazis” because of their new homerun celebration.
• Pittsburgh (51-49): The Pirates are reportedly making a push to acquire Marlins outfielder Jazz Chisholm Jr.
• Cincinnati (48-53): Longtime Reds broadcaster Thom Brennaman is set to return to broadcasting after an on-air slur nearly four years ago.

How About That!

The Dodgers designated lefty starter James Paxton for assignment.

The Rockies are set to activate Kris Bryant from the injury list, possibly as soon as today.

The Guardians and Pirates were the big winners in this year’s minor league draft.

Portly pitcher CC Sabathia was once banned from eating cheesesteaks in the visiting clubhouse at Citizens Bank Park.

Latest Trade Rumors

Tight division races are expected to delay trades until the final hours of this year’s deadline.

A dozen franchises remain on the bubble heading into next week’s player movement cutoff.

The Dodgers and Orioles are the leading contenders to acquire Tigers starter Tarik Skubal.

The dominance of Paul Skenes could shift the Pirates into buy mode.

The Yankees are willing to part with top prospects Jasson Domínguez and Spencer Jones in the right deal.

New York is reportedly interested in reacquiring reliever Chad Green.

The Mets are telling teams slugging first baseman Pete Alonso will not be traded this season.

The Diamondbacks are looking for starting pitching.

Monday’s Top Performances

• Juan Soto – The Yankees slugger bashed two home runs and plated four runners in New York’s 9-1 win over the Rays.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – The Royals shortstop is hitting .341 after going 3-for-4 with a home run, a double, a triple, and three RBI. Witt was a single short of hitting for the cycle when he was hit by a pitch from Arizona reliever Humberto Castellanos.

Extra Innings

Too many Cubs fans refuse to give Happ the love he deserves.

Exit velocity: 110.9 mph 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/uTPOYt13Qg

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) July 23, 2024

Monday Morning Six-Pack

1. The Bears kicked off training camp at Halas Hall this week and expectations are high. Chicago’s first preseason game is a week from tomorrow.
2. Something to ponder: This is the first presidential election without a Bush, Clinton, or Biden on the ballot since 1976 — when the first Star Wars was being filmed. And the winner of that 1976 election is still alive. That’d be 99-year-old Jimmy Carter.
3. Despite receiving praise from sitting president Joe Biden, USSS Director Kimberly Cheatle resigned in the wake of the Donald Trump assassination attempt and subsequent congressional investigation.
4. Americans will soon pay less to stay in touch with incarcerated loved ones, per a new Federal Communications Commission (FCC) rule.
5. Priscilla Presley is suing four of her former business partners, accusing them of elder abuse and plotting to steal “every last penny she had.”
6. Twisters, the follow-up to 1996’s Twister, grabbed an impressive $80.5 million at the North American box office this weekend, making it the latest summer sequel to find success and opening the door for a third Twisters in the future. It’s more evidence that audiences are craving familiar storylines after Hollywood had its worst Memorial Day weekend in 43 years just two months ago. Call it the Tom Cruise effect. By the way, my good friend Adam Lucio, a real life storm chaser, has a cameo in the new film.

Apropos II

My book Liner Notes goes to print next weekend. A few of you ordered copies, but I do not have your addresses. Please email them to me.

They Said It

• “There is no motivation to sink more resources into this underperforming team. The roster, however, is not designed to sell, and there is an expectation to compete in 2025. The Cubs will use August and September for player development and will try to sell the idea of ‘just wait until next offseason’ for the really big moves.” – Patrick Mooney, The Athletic
• “Jameson Taillon is healthy, his performance this year [3.10 ERA over 17 starts] is not a fluke, and his contract is reasonable for any of the 30 teams. The Cubs need to improve their offense and bullpen; using Taillon as trade bait instead of parting with top prospects to address those areas makes a lot of sense for Chicago.” – Jim Bowden, The Athletic
• “We probably won’t do a lot of moves that only help us for this year. If moves help us in ’25 and beyond, I think we’re still exceptionally well-positioned. I think that’s what our focus will be. But just helping in ’24, that probably won’t be our focus unless things change dramatically.” – Hoyer
• “I had a pitching coach in the minor leagues right after I signed with the Pirates who said, ‘There are scouts everywhere you will pitch in your career. You are always auditioning for all 30 clubs.’ That alerted me right away as to how much a business baseball is. It’s always better to be wanted. It’s much better than the flip side.” – Taillon

Monday Walk-Up Song

I don’t give U2 the love the band deserves. This may be the best tribute to Billie Holiday that exists.