Quantifying Hope: Sweep More Than Doubles Cubs’ Odds to Whopping 13.2%

When last we checked on our heroes’ postseason odds, they stood at a measly 6.3% after being roughly 11 times higher in early May. Now, however, the Cubs are riding high after dog-walking what had been the American League’s best team. By shutting the Orioles out twice and sweeping them with an aggregate score of 21-2, the Cubs moved all the way up into a tie for fourth in the NL Central. Heady stuff, huh?

The North Siders have gained two games on the Brewers over their last 10, putting them nine back in the division. More importantly, they’re only three games out of the Wild Card and have four games against the Cardinals in the next three days. Some of you may not want to hear it and I don’t know that I completely believe it myself, but a serious run is possible.

At the same time, the Cubs could just as easily piss themselves in The Lou and fall right back to where they were a week ago. This really is a pivotal series, coming as it does at the end of the first half. Moving the draft to the weekend before the All-Star Game means teams have less time than ever to make decisions about what to do at the July 30 trade deadline. Since most front offices are preoccupied with which amateurs to select, they haven’t turned their focus to which players to deal or acquire.

Jed Hoyer had reportedly been leading toward selling, understandably so, and he probably still will be unless this recent hot stretch continues through the next few days. It’s also possible we see a softer buy/sell stance, especially with Cody Bellinger shelved for at least 10 days with a broken finger on his left hand. Moving him would be more about roster/payroll clearance than getting anything significant in return, though now it might not even be worth that.

For all the talk about threading the needle and getting improvement from within, going on a run is as simple as getting consistent production from the lineup and staff. We saw what happens when Dansby Swanson shows competence at the plate and the bullpen can put up clean innings. The Cubs were forcing the action in Baltimore just like they did earlier in the season when it looked like they were contenders.

Even though the odds still say they don’t stand much of a chance, at least they’ve been fun to watch over the last week. At this point, that’s all I can really ask for.